Fidelity notes Bitcoin’s maturing market as volatility drops, Jack Dorsey advocates for AI management, and the CFTC targets prediction markets, while BTC holds $69K despite extreme fear. Bitcoin showed notable upside volatility on the first trading day of April. Real-time market data indicated that BTC was trading around $69K, with a 24-hour gain of 2.44%, successfully ending a five-month downtrend that had persisted since 2025. Although April has historically delivered strong average gains of 12.1%, the current market structure is deviating from traditional seasonal patterns. An early-session drop to $67,630 showed that support levels are still being tested. On the macro side, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this year remain limited, while the scale of supply-side shocks appears manageable. That has given the market some degree of cushioning. At the same time, onchain data pointed to diverging institutional capital flows. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded total net inflows of USD 118 million yesterday, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing USD 98.4218 million. Ethereum spot ETFs, meanwhile, posted net inflows of USD 31.1684 million. Even so, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has now fallen to 7, which indicates that the market remains in Extreme Fear. In terms of liquidation pressure, if BTC falls below $64,745, cumulative long liquidations across major CEXs could reach USD 1.675 billion. If ETH drops below $1,997, long liquidations could climb to USD 1.248 billion. In addition, BTC spot price is still trading at a 21% premium to its realized price, which suggests the market has not yet entered a classic capitulation phase. Some analytical models even suggest that the bottom of this cycle may be delayed until the fourth quarter of 2026, when price could face the risk of retesting $40,000.

Key News Highlights:

Bitcoin’s Sharply Narrower Drawdown in This Cycle Signals a Maturing Market

According to the latest research report from Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin’s drawdown in the current market cycle has been around 50%, which is materially smaller than the 80% to 90% declines seen in previous cycles. Analyst Zack Wainwright noted that, when measured from each historical peak, both upside expansion and downside risk have gradually diminished over time. This reflects the broader pattern of diminishing returns. The data shows that Bitcoin reached a cycle low of around $60,000 in February 2026, marking a 52% decline from the $126,000 peak recorded in October last year. By comparison, the previous cycle saw a drawdown as deep as 77%. Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, believes the narrower pullback suggests that market volatility is easing while institutional confidence is strengthening. This shift points to Bitcoin moving away from a purely speculative asset profile and toward a more stable store-of-value role, which may support broader adoption over time. However, the Alphractal model indicates that this cycle’s top arrived 534 days after the halving, earlier than in prior cycles. It also estimates that the final bottom may not appear until late September or early October 2026. BTC currently remains below both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages and is only hovering near the 200-week EMA support zone around $68K.

Jack Dorsey Outlines a Corporate Transformation Vision Where AI Replaces Middle Management

Block co-founder Jack Dorsey recently shared his vision for the future workplace, arguing that AI should replace traditional hierarchical management structures, especially middle-management functions. Earlier in February, Block cut around 4,000 jobs, or roughly 40% of its workforce, as a key step in its transition toward an AI-driven operating model. In a recent article, Dorsey and Block independent director Roelof Botha said AI is already far more efficient than humans at tracking project progress, identifying potential issues, and assigning tasks. Block is now in the early stages of shifting those management functions to technology. They challenged the long-standing assumption that organizations must rely on humans as the central coordination layer. Their stated goal is to reshape the company into what they describe as a “mini-AGI.” Under this new structure, employees would be reorganized into individual contributors, directly responsible owners, and “player-coaches” who combine programming work with mentorship duties. Dorsey argued that traditional hierarchies often slow the flow of information, while AI can provide a real-time view of product performance and accelerate decision-making. Even so, human judgment will remain essential in core business decisions and ethical evaluation. This type of organizational redesign could reshape how companies operate across industries in the coming years.

US CFTC Warns It Will Crack Down Aggressively on Insider Trading in Prediction Markets

David Miller, Chief Enforcement Director at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, issued a public warning during an event at New York University, saying regulators are closely monitoring insider trading in prediction markets and will take enforcement action against violators. Miller strongly rejected claims circulating on social media that insider trading laws do not apply to prediction markets. He made clear that this view is incorrect. In the Commission’s view, event contracts traded in prediction markets are fundamentally classified as swaps, which means they are subject to strict insider trading rules. The CFTC said it will use prosecutorial discretion to focus specifically on individuals who trade on stolen information or leak material information, rather than spending resources on trivial cases. As monthly prediction market volume has surpassed USD 20 billion, concerns have grown over the possibility that government officials could use non-public information to place highly targeted trades, including positions linked to US presidential announcements or international geopolitical conflicts. In response to rising regulatory pressure, leading platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have introduced new self-regulatory rules. At the same time, US lawmakers have proposed several bills, including the Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act of 2026, in an effort to curb profiteering based on insider information obtained through public office and to preserve fair competition in the market.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for informational purposes only and doesn't represent any investment advice or FameEX's official view.