FameEX Weekly Market Trend | August 21, 2023

1. Market Trend

From August 17 to August 20, the BTC price fluctuated between $25,166.00 and $29,235.00, with a volatility of 16.16%. According to the 1-hour chart, on August 17 at 4:00 am, BTC fell below $29,000. Unlike before, it didn’t swiftly bounce back from this fall, even after hitting pivotal support at $28,500. It lingered around this point with minor $100 fluctuations, implying an extreme market weakness. Subsequently, BTC dropped to $25,000 ($24,000 for OKX). Although it bounced back to about $26,000, it’s now fluctuating around this level without a notable rebound. Currently, for the bulls to regain control, they must swiftly breach $28,500 (close to the 99-day moving average). Otherwise, the bears will persist. BTC’s crucial support might form around $24,500 (likely with a gradual decline). As per market cycles, this could signal BTC’s final dip before a potential bull market. Yet, given the present market, recognizing the dominant trend remains pivotal for informed decision-making.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

Between August 17 and August 20, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated within a range of 0.06062-0.06468, showing a 6.67% fluctuation. From the 1-hour chart, ETH/BTC followed BTC’s downward trend during a sharp BTC drop, but subsequently experienced a swift surge, even surpassing recent highs. On the daily chart, the current price is hovering near the 99-day moving average which has been acting as a resistance for ETH/BTC for several months. Considering the current overall market and technical characteristics, it’s challenging for ETH/BTC to sustain further upward movement and break through the 99-day moving average (0.06465). When dealing with ETH/BTC, it’s still advisable to observe more before making any significant moves.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Based on overall analysis, the market has experienced a series of chain reactions following the sharp decline of the leading cryptocurrency, BTC. Most of the cryptos on the market have suffered significant drops, although there are some relatively strong performers (such as OP, ARB, LTC, etc.). Currently, there haven’t been any effective rebounds in the overall market. Many coins are maintaining narrow fluctuations, and they will likely continue to test lower levels. Protecting the principal is of paramount importance at this juncture, and adopting a cautious approach with limited actions is crucial. It’s recommended to observe more and take fewer actions in this critical phase. Once the market situation becomes relatively clear, appropriate actions can be taken accordingly.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 0.44 is below the buy-the-dip level ($26,420). Therefore, it is viable to purchase popular coins at a low point.

Source: OKLink

From the perspective of MVRV Z-Score, the value is 0.40. When the value is greater than 6, it enters the market tops, while a value below 2 indicates that it enters the market bottoms. Currently, the present value exceeds the buy-the-dip range (-0.36-0.03).

Source: coinsoto

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

After August 17, there were significant declines in BTC and ETH contract open interest from major exchanges.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1) On August 17, Sichuan Province unveiled an ambitious draft action plan, aiming to grow the metaverse to 250 billion yuan by 2025.

2) On August 17, Ripple Labs expressed opposition to the SEC’s appeal request.

3) On August 17, Singaporean authorities seized assets worth 1 billion dollars and arrested 10 foreign nationals involved in money laundering.

4) On August 18, the attacker behind the BNB Bridge incident was liquidated for 1.1 million vBNB tokens.

5) On August 18, Tether’s CTO stated that Tether would release three major products before the end of this year.

6) On August 19, data revealed that the trading volume of Ethereum futures on CME exceeded 12.5 billion dollars in July.

7) On August 19, the SEC filed an interim appeal motion regarding the Ripple case ruling.

8) On August 20, Huang Licheng’s address accumulated a purchase of 1.88 million APE tokens from Binance in August.

9) On August 20, Europe’s first spot Bitcoin ETF debuted, featuring embedded certificates for renewable energy.

10) On August 20, the lead developer of Dogecoin stated that they might step away from Dogecoin’s development if transitioning to a Proof of Stake (POS) consensus is pursued.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.