FameEX Hot Topics | Will Friday’s $5B Options Expiry Push Ethereum Toward $5,000?

The looming $5 billion ETH options expiry on Friday is being closely watched as a defining moment for the cryptocurrency market. Over the past month, ETH has rallied 22%, a strong performance that has reinforced bullish strategies and shifted market sentiment toward optimism. With ETH trading just below key resistance levels, this expiry could provide the momentum needed for a decisive push above $5,000. If such a breakout materializes, it would mark another milestone in ETH’s maturation as one of the world’s leading digital assets.

ETH’s current market capitalization stands at $557 billion, securing it a place among the world’s top 30 tradable assets. This puts ETH ahead of corporate titans like Mastercard and Exxon Mobil in terms of valuation. While the debate continues about whether cryptocurrencies should be compared directly to stocks, data shows that ETH maintains a meaningful correlation with the S&P 500. This correlation highlights that investors increasingly evaluate ETH through a similar risk framework used for equities, tying its price dynamics to global macroeconomic conditions and broader investor sentiment.

In fact, ETH’s correlation with the S&P 500 has frequently hovered above 80% over the past year, demonstrating its integration into traditional financial market patterns. That said, there was a short period in late July when this correlation inverted, underscoring that crypto can still behave independently of equities. Traders remain particularly attentive to earnings from artificial intelligence–driven companies, which have been central to equity market rallies. Since these earnings can indirectly influence ETH’s trajectory, crypto investors are treating them as potential catalysts for price swings. Turning to the options market, call contracts outweigh put contracts, with $2.75 billion in open interest compared to $2.25 billion in puts. 

Crucially, only 6% of ETH put options are placed at $4,600 or higher, meaning most bearish positions carry little weight. Conversely, 71% of call contracts are positioned at $4,600 or below, with dense clusters at $4,400 and $4,500. This creates a favorable setup for bulls, who are incentivized to defend these levels. Even a modest pullback toward $4,400 would leave many bullish strategies profitable, reinforcing positive momentum. Ultimately, whether ETH successfully breaks above $5,000 will depend on how traders digest broader economic risks and global market sentiment in the weeks ahead.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.