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FameEX Hot Topics | Analysis of Solana's On-Chain and Derivatives Data Reveals Constraints on SOL's Potential Price Surge

2023-04-20 14:34:10

Solana, a blockchain-based ecosystem, has been in the news recently due to a range of events and developments that have impacted the price of its native cryptocurrency SOL. While some of these developments are positive, such as the launch of a new mobile phone called Saga that runs on Solana, others are causing concern among investors and analysts. The Saga phone, while receiving positive reviews for user experience and quality, has been criticized for its high price point of over $1,000. However, some investors see potential for more "Saga-exclusive dApps, games, and rewards," which could help justify the premium price tag. The challenge now is for the Solana Foundation to effectively market the phone against established giants like Samsung and Apple.


Another area of concern is the Grayscale Solana Trust, which currently has only $2.9 million in assets under management. This is low compared to the 24-hour daily trading volume of SOL, which surpassed $500 million, and is unlikely to have a significant impact on the price of the cryptocurrency.
In addition, on-chain metrics suggest that there may be a lack of growth in the Solana ecosystem, despite the recent surge in price. While daily transactions have reached a new all-time high, the number of daily active accounts has dipped to new lows, which is cause for concern. DeFi usage on Solana has also been limited, with liquidity staking protocols being the primary use case. Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have been a bright spot for the ecosystem, with Solana's market share in NFT trading rising from 6% to 14% of total NFT sales volume in less than a year. However, NFT trading volumes have declined since February 2023, which is a discouraging sign.


The rise in SOL's price appears to be driven by derivatives volumes, as open interest (OI) volume for SOL futures surged to a 2023 high in April. However, this surge in OI volumes also coincides with a surge in funding rates for perpetual swap contracts, suggesting that leverage traders are bullish on the coin. This is a bearish contrarian signal, as the market usually runs the stops of crowded perpetual orders. Overall, while there are some positive developments in the Solana ecosystem, such as the surge in daily transactions and NFT market share, there are also warning signs of a lack of growth in certain areas and a potential steep correction. Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor the market to make informed investment decisions.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for informational purposes only, doesn't represent any investment advice or FameEX's official view.

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