FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Metric Signals $100K Was the Bottom — When Will the Next Rally Begin?

Since breaking above the $100,000 threshold on May 8, Bitcoin has maintained a daily close above this key psychological level. Despite a brief dip to $98,300 on June 22, the asset has stayed within striking distance of new highs above $111,800. This price stability, even with minor corrections, has strengthened the case for Bitcoin’s consolidation within a strong demand zone, hinting that $100,000 may now serve as critical support in the broader bullish trend.

One important indicator suggests that the $100,000–$110,000 range could represent a new structural bottom before Bitcoin embarks on another parabolic move in the second half of 2025. CryptoQuant data highlights a clear resurgence in long-term confidence, with onchain activity showing significant outflows from exchanges. The outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9—its lowest level since late 2022. Historically, a sub-1.0 ratio points to investor accumulation and has often marked turning points in the market cycle, including major bottoms.

This metric, which tracks how much Bitcoin is being moved into versus out of exchanges, serves as a reliable gauge of investor sentiment. A ratio below 1 generally means investors are withdrawing BTC from trading platforms, suggesting they intend to hold. On the flip side, a ratio above 1.05 has previously accompanied periods of selling pressure and local tops. The current low reading mirrors December 2022 levels, when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 before embarking on a long rally—adding weight to the idea that another major upward move may be near.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has managed to hold firm in the $100,000–$110,000 band despite continuous short-side pressure in the derivatives market. For over 45 days, Trading Platform has seen persistent sell-side flows, with Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) readings remaining negative—indicating takers are aggressively selling. Yet, the price hasn’t broken down, which implies that buyers, potentially long-term holders or institutions, are absorbing the selling pressure and accumulating BTC.

Further evidence of this structural support comes from large onchain transactions involving dormant coins. Analyst Maartunn reported that over 19,400 BTC (valued at $2.11 billion) were transferred on Tuesday from dormant wallets into institutional-grade addresses. These coins had been inactive for 3–7 years, suggesting calculated reallocation by large holders. Combined with continued inflows into cold wallets and limited downside reaction, these signs point to a solid accumulation base forming near $100,000—potentially laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next bullish leg.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.