FameEX Hot Topics | Shifting Trader Sentiment Strengthens $100K Support for Bitcoin as Portfolio Staple

Since May 10, Bitcoin has faced difficulty breaking above the $105,000 resistance level, raising doubts among traders about the sustainability of its recent bullish trend. While the cryptocurrency briefly recovered to the $104,000 mark, a significant drop in demand for leveraged long positions has emerged. This is reflected in the falling Bitcoin futures premium, indicating waning confidence in short-term upside potential.

On May 14, the annualized premium on Bitcoin futures contracts peaked at 7% but declined to 5%—a level often seen as neutral to bearish. This matches the futures premium seen four weeks prior, when BTC was trading near $84,500. The decrease in leveraged bullish bets seems to be closely tied to macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly the performance of the broader equity markets. Bitcoin’s price movements have increasingly mirrored trends in the S&P 500.

On May 15, the S&P 500 futures reversed earlier losses, which coincided with Bitcoin rebounding from $101,800 to $104,000. Investors appear to believe that the U.S. Treasury may soon inject liquidity into markets, especially after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that persistent “supply shocks” could keep interest rates elevated longer than anticipated. Meanwhile, weak economic data added to the uncertainty, with April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly falling by 0.5%—contrary to economist forecasts of a 0.2% rise.

The shifting macroeconomic landscape has driven renewed demand for fixed income assets. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.45% on May 15 after reaching 4.55% the day prior. Historically, rising yields have often supported Bitcoin as investors seek alternatives to traditional debt instruments. However, current falling yields reflect growing economic caution, adding pressure to risk assets. Despite this, options market data suggests traders aren’t preparing for a significant BTC correction.

While Bitcoin’s price has hovered near $104,000, options market sentiment remains unexpectedly strong. Put options (bets against Bitcoin) have been trading at a discount to call options (bullish bets), indicating faith in the $100,000 support level. That said, the BTC delta skew has returned to a neutral -4%, signaling fading short-term optimism. Still, the $320 million net inflow into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs on May 14 reflects robust institutional interest. As investors begin to see Bitcoin as less correlated with equities, the asset may be more resilient to macro shocks, even without aggressive leveraged buying.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.