FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Loses Bullish Momentum: Will It Drop to $115K Next?

Bitcoin is showing signs of potential weakness, as three critical charts indicate the possibility of new weekly lows in July. While the long-term trend for Bitcoin remains intact, traders should brace for short-term volatility. This suggests that although the cryptocurrency is still in a general upward trajectory, short-term corrections may occur, making it essential for investors to stay vigilant.

One of the key signals of weakness is a hidden bearish divergence between Bitcoin's price and its relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures the strength of price movements. A hidden bearish divergence occurs when Bitcoin's price continues to make higher highs, but the RSI forms either equal or lower highs. This divergence hints at weakening momentum behind the ongoing rally, which could lead to a downside correction in the near future. Such patterns have historically preceded price drops, including a notable 20% decline in March 2024.

In addition to the bearish divergence, another factor contributing to the current potential for weakness is the presence of a CME gap on Bitcoin’s daily chart. CME gaps form when Bitcoin trades outside regular hours on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), leaving untraded price voids that are often filled during subsequent active trading sessions. There is currently a gap between $114,380 and $115,635. Historical data suggests that Bitcoin tends to fill these gaps, and with seven out of nine CME gaps in 2025 already filled, there is a high likelihood that Bitcoin will revisit this gap, possibly resulting in a short-term dip towards the $114,000 range.

Further supporting the case for a potential decline, anonymous crypto analyst Gaah pointed out that the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) has entered the distribution zone. This zone has historically been associated with market euphoria and interim tops. Although the index is only at the lower base of the distribution zone (80%), it still serves as a warning signal for short-term corrective risk. The analyst noted that other indicators, such as the Puell Multiple and STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio), remain below mid-levels, which indicates that retail speculation and aggressive profit-taking by miners have not yet peaked.

Gaah emphasized that the current readings in the IBCI zone are important warning signs, suggesting that we are in a high-risk area for short-term corrections. However, he also stated that this doesn’t necessarily signal the end of the current bull cycle. Instead, it serves as a cautionary reminder of the potential for short-term volatility and a possible decline before any further price movements. Traders and investors should be aware of these signals and prepare for the possibility of a market pullback.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.