FameEX Hot Topics | As Bitcoin Holders Distribute, Will $105K Become BTC’s Last Stronghold?

Bitcoin saw significant volatility following its gains from the Jackson Hole symposium, where dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials fueled optimism in the markets. On Friday, Bitcoin posted a sharp rebound, rising 3.91% from $111,700 to $117,300, marking its strongest daily return since July 10. This surge sparked renewed hope for another rally toward new all-time highs. However, the momentum quickly faded as Bitcoin reversed course over the weekend, sliding to $110,600 by Monday. A bearish weekly engulfing candle underscored the growing vulnerability of the price, suggesting that a correction may be imminent.

On-chain data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin holders are increasingly shifting into distribution mode, with all wallet cohorts showing signs of selling pressure. The largest distribution is coming from the 10–100 BTC group, with synchronized behavior across various wallet sizes contributing to downward pressure on price stability. Smaller holders, owning 0–1 BTC, have continued to accumulate, while 1–10 BTC wallets resumed buying when prices dipped below $107,000. In contrast, the 10–100 BTC group turned into net sellers after Bitcoin hit $118,000, indicating a change in sentiment among mid-sized holders.

For large Bitcoin holders (those holding over 1,000 BTC), the distribution remains consistent, while the 100–1,000 BTC group shows a split between accumulation and distribution, particularly around the $105,000 mark. This price level is now viewed as a critical support zone, representing the last stronghold before a potential major correction. Realized price data supports this notion, with shorter-term holders, those with positions held for one to three months, having an average cost basis of $111,900. Longer-term holders, however, have cost bases much lower, around $89,200 to $91,630, highlighting a significant gap between short-term and long-term holders.

If Bitcoin fails to hold the $105,000 level, analysts suggest that the absence of strong cost support between this price and $90,000 could accelerate downside momentum. Such a drop could trigger capitulation among recent buyers, with the $92,000–$89,000 range identified as the next major demand zone. The risk of further declines is compounded by Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns, which have historically shown weakness between August and September. The “ghost month” in Asia, running from August 23 to September 21 this year, has typically coincided with lower risk appetite and profit-taking by traders.

In the past, Bitcoin has posted an average decline of 21.7% during the ghost month, with more significant drops recorded in 2017 (–39.8%) and 2021 (–23%). Given these historical trends and the current technical landscape, a retreat to the $105,000–$100,000 range seems likely. If this support level holds, Bitcoin may stabilize, but any further breakdown could signal a deeper correction, with $92,000–$89,000 as the next critical support zone.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.