FameEX Hot Topics | Grayscale: This Time Bitcoin Will Break the 4-Year Cycle

Grayscale Research asserts that Bitcoin has outgrown its classic four-year halving cycle. The once-dominant rhythm—driven by programmed supply cuts and retail euphoria—is rapidly losing relevance as institutional capital and global macro forces take the wheel. Each successive halving now exerts a smaller proportional impact as more BTC enters circulation, diluting the scarcity shock that previously ignited explosive rallies. Today, price action is increasingly shaped by sustained institutional inflows rather than the speculative retail waves that defined 2013 and 2017.

Grayscale points to the current bull run as evidence. Unlike the parabolic surges of past cycles, Bitcoin’s latest ascent has been remarkably measured and orderly. The subsequent 30% correction, while sharp, aligns with typical mid-bull-market pullbacks rather than the catastrophic drawdowns that traditionally marked cycle tops. On-chain data from Glassnode and institutional flow insights this view: Bitcoin’s behavior in the mid-2020s is increasingly detached from the rigid four-year script that once dictated investor expectations.

Instead of halving timing, Grayscale identifies five new primary drivers: steady long-term institutional allocation, improving regulatory clarity, global liquidity conditions, persistent spot ETF demand, and a growing base of holders. These structural forces are transforming Bitcoin from a speculative retail toy into a macro asset class responsive to traditional financial currents. Corrections remain inevitable—sometimes severe—but Grayscale stresses they no longer automatically herald multi-year bear markets as they did in earlier eras.

The analytical implications are profound. Fixed four-year cycle models are being retired in favor of dynamic frameworks built on on-chain metrics, liquidity trends, and institutional flow indicators. This shift reflects Bitcoin’s maturation from fringe experiment to recognized component of the global financial system. While volatility persists, Grayscale concludes the market’s underlying character has fundamentally changed—meaning old cycle-timing playbooks belong to a previous epoch that Bitcoin has permanently left behind.

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