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Weekly Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market (April 12-April 16)

2023-04-17 16:38:55

1. Market Trend

Between April 12 and April 16, the price fluctuated between $29,637 and $31,000, with a volatility of 4.4%. According to the 1-hour candle chart, the BTC price has been running above the weekly line, crossing the daily chart multiple times, which indicates a strong price trend. During this period, the price broke through $31,000, reaching a modest new high.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

According to the ETH/BTC trend, the ETH/BTC price displayed a fluctuation of 12% between April 12 and April 16. From the 1-hour candle chart, the ETH/BTC price edged down initially, touching the 0.062 level before oscillating for a short time. From the evening of April 12 to the morning of April 14, it rose sharply to the 0.069 level and has since been oscillating near the daily chart.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Overall, the market remains strong with a narrow new high of the BTC price. Altcoins represented by ETH have surged, which implies that their price will continue to rise in the future.

2. Cycle Analysis

Looking at the weekly candle chart of BTC, it has now entered a range of oscillation and reversal. Reviewing the previous several oscillation ranges: $28,000-$41,000 (January 2021), $29,000-$41,000 (June 2021 and July 2021), $33,000-$48,000 (February 2022 and March 2022), and $28,000-$32,000 (May 2022), it can be seen that a large amount of buying pressure has accumulated within the price range of $31,000-$43,000. Under the dual effect of profitable users selling at the price levels of $21,000, $19,000, and $17,000 in the past year and users who bought the dip in the last round selling off all their holdings to get out of a difficult situation, it is expected that the top range of this small bull market will be between $40,000 and $45,000. In terms of time, the top range will come in May and June.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 0.9 is above the buying-the-dip level ($21,440) but below the DCA level ($35,000). It is viable to purchase popular coins through DCA. If the index exceeds the DCA level, it may be wise to consider a brief exit.

Source: OKLink 

From the perspective of MVRV Z-Score, the value is 0.69. When the value is greater than 6, it enters the market tops, while a value below 2 indicates that it enters the market bottoms. Currently, the present value exceeds the buying-the-dip range (-0.4-0.1). A short-term exit from the market could be a viable choice if the value reaches 2 (current value: 1.52).

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

  1. 1) On April 12, after the Shanghai upgrade, a net withdrawal of some 37,000 ETH was completed, with approximately 450,000 ETH still waiting for withdrawal.

  2. 2) On April 12, FTX retrieved $7.3 billion in liquidity, and the exchange may be reopened.

  3. 3) On April 12, Sei Labs Eco-Fund completed a new round of financing of $50 million.

  4. 4) On April 13, BTC surpassed Tesla and returned to the top 10 global assets by market capitalization.

  5. 5) On April 13, the BYAC NFT floor price fell to 55.59 ETH, hitting a five-month low.

  6. 6) On April 14, trading platforms such as OKX and Kucoin were about to start SUI Token sales with a price of $0.1 each.

  7. 7) On April 14, the total lock-up volume of Ethereum L2 rose to $10.5 billion, and zkSyncEra approached $250 million.

  8. 8) On April 14, Blockware Solutions revealed that 53% of Bitcoin’s supply has not moved in the last two years.

  9. 9) On April 15, after the Shanghai upgrade, over 500,000 ETH were withdrawn, with around 850,000 ETH still waiting for withdrawal.

  10. 10) On April 15, Xiao Feng, the Chairman of Wanxiang Group, stated that the Web3 application layer has three types of tokens: NFTs, utility tokens, and security tokens.

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