FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Hits $109.7K, But Pro Traders Doubt Momentum

Bitcoin rallied past $109,000 on Wednesday, rebounding after testing the $105,200 support level earlier in the day. This move aligned with macroeconomic shifts, including a significant increase in the eurozone’s money supply and weakening signals from the U.S. labor market. Despite nearing its all-time high—just 2% below—many professional traders remain skeptical of the rally's strength, with derivative market metrics showing persistent caution rather than optimism.

The Bitcoin futures premium, a key indicator of trader sentiment, has remained under the 5% neutral threshold. It rose slightly from 4% on Monday, continuing a modest upward trend that began on June 11, when Bitcoin last tested the $110,000 mark. The lack of strong bullish sentiment among futures traders suggests that the market does not yet believe this breakout is firmly supported by institutional conviction.

While no single catalyst is responsible for Wednesday’s surge, the eurozone’s April data showing a record 2.7% year-over-year growth in its broad money supply (M2) likely contributed. This expansion, paired with similar trends in the U.S. monetary base, points to a growing inflationary environment. Additionally, weak U.S. employment data—specifically, a 33,000 decline in private payrolls in June—may have spurred interest in inflation hedges like Bitcoin.

However, broader concerns remain. Escalating global trade tensions, especially U.S. threats to impose tariffs above 30% on Japanese imports if no deal is reached by July 9, are clouding investor sentiment. In Europe, ambassadors have instructed EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič to adopt a firmer tone during talks in Washington. There are even internal disagreements within the EU regarding how to respond to U.S. trade pressure, with some calling for a reduction in the current 10% reciprocal tariff.

To gauge whether bearish sentiment extends beyond futures, analysts also monitor the BTC options market, specifically the 25% delta skew. If traders expect downside risk, this metric typically rises above 6%. Currently, however, the skew stands at 0%, indicating balanced expectations for upward or downward moves. This neutrality shows that while traders aren’t overly bullish, they also don’t foresee an imminent drop. Nonetheless, the cautious tone remains prevalent, reinforced by Tuesday’s $342 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs—highlighting a broader sense of macroeconomic uncertainty and hesitation in the crypto space.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.