FameEX Weekly Market Trend | August 17, 2023

1. Market Trend

From August 14 to August 16, the BTC price fluctuated between $29,047.09 and $29,695.32, with a volatility of 2.23%. According to the 1-hour chart, BTC surged to $29,695 from $29,500 within 14 days but swiftly retraced to around $29,200 (recent oscillation center). On the evening of August 16, BTC moved away from this center, nearing $29,000. The trend turned bearish, with the 7-day moving average above candlesticks, curbing the price. On the daily chart, the 99-day moving average ($28,500) formed crucial support. Since January 12, BTC has effectively broken through the 99-day moving average that had suppressed it for over half a year, and up until now, it has not been breached significantly. Twice during this period, it acted as a crucial support level, providing upward momentum to BTC. Now, this moving average is once again being tested by the market. Breaching $28,500 (99-day moving average) could turn market sentiment bearish. Therefore, it is advisable to follow the trend.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

Between August 14 and August 16, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated within a range of 0.06236-0.06318, showing a 1.31% fluctuation. From the 1-hour chart, ETH/BTC is in an oscillating downtrend, and significant patterns have emerged in its price movement (upward movement on low volume and downward movement on high volume), indicating a weak state. Given the unclear recent trend of BTC as well, it’s recommended to observe more and act less at this time, and to stay away from this cryptocurrency.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Based on overall analysis, currently, most cryptocurrencies in the market are gradually declining under the influence of BTC, and their drops are significantly greater than the drop in BTC, highlighting the market’s weakness. Altcoins that previously had independent trends have also experienced substantial retracements recently. BTC is currently facing a crucial decision point near $28,500. The short-term direction of the market is closely tied to the choice at this juncture. In terms of actions, it’s advised to use the 99-day moving average as an important reference point and go with the prevailing trend.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 0.55 is above the buy-the-dip level ($26,320) but below the DCA level ($42,980). It is viable to purchase popular coins through DCA.

Source: OKLink

From the perspective of MVRV Z-Score, the value is 0.63. When the value is greater than 6, it enters the market tops, while a value below 2 indicates that it enters the market bottoms. Currently, the present value exceeds the buy-the-dip range (-0.33-0.06).

Source: coinsoto

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

The BTC contract open interest remained largely unchanged, while the ETH contract open interest saw a slight increase on August 16.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1) On August 14, Justin Sun claimed to currently hold over 100,000 Bitcoins.

2) On August 14, Huobi’s original founder, Li Lin, signed an agreement for a luxury residence in Hong Kong’s Mid-levels area, adopting a lease-to-buy approach, with a subscription price reaching 1 billion Hong Kong dollars.

3) On August 14, a former SEC official stated that the SEC is a highly non-political institution, especially in the context of cryptocurrencies.

4) On August 15, the real-life inspiration for the movie “The Big Short” bought put options on U.S. stocks.

5) On August 15, the founder of Skybridge Capital mentioned that a Bitcoin ETF should have been introduced earlier.

6) On August 15, the Monetary Authority of Singapore finalized the regulatory framework for stablecoins.

7) On August 15, Sei officially launched its mainnet.

8) On August 16, Adidas collaborated with BAPE to release NFT versions of sneakers.

9) On August 16, Coinbase was granted permission to offer BTC and ETH futures to eligible U.S. customers.

10) On August 16, a wallet address that had been dormant for 13 years, containing 1,005 BTC, became active again.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.