FameEX Weekly Market Trend | May 22, 2025
2025-05-22 13:29:32
1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends
From May 15 to May 21, the BTC spot price swung from $101,170.34 to $111,928.53, a 10.63% range.
Key Statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) in the Past 7 Days:
1) On May 16, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework. Zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario, and the wording around underemployment and average inflation needs to be reconsidered. He expects the April PCE to drop to 2.2%.
Michael Barr noted that the U.S. economy is fundamentally solid, but tariff-related supply chain disruptions may lead to slower growth and higher inflation.
2) On May 19, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the Fed’s policy is in a very good place, and it’s appropriate to wait and observe how it unfolds. He treats Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating as general data input for policy decisions.
Raphael Bostic stated that the downgrade by Moody’s could impact the broader economy and financial markets. He reiterated the expectation of one rate cut this year and said action might be taken earlier if trade negotiations progress smoothly.
John Williams commented that the policy is slightly restrictive, and recent economic data has been very good.
Lorie Logan suggested the Fed should consider strengthening mechanisms to more effectively prevent money market rates from spiking during times of stress.
3) On May 18, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious with interest rate moves.
4) ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said rates may have to fall below 2%, but there’s no reason to further cut by 50 basis points in the foreseeable future.
Chief Economist Philip Lane noted the ECB will release an updated strategy in the second half of the year. U.S. tariff uncertainty will be factored into June’s forecasts.
In summary, Fed officials emphasized attention to Moody’s downgrade, while overall messaging from the ECB leaned slightly dovish.
On May 17, according to Guangming Online, the Pudong police in Shanghai recently successfully dismantled a criminal gang that used “labor recruitment” as a cover to transfer funds for overseas fraud groups. This gang recruited people to register virtual currency wallets, providing illegal fund transfer accounts for fraudulent activities.
On April 13, a citizen named Mr. Tang received a “cash on delivery” text message and contacted the sender to cancel the delivery. The sender then asked him to provide his bank card information and sent a link. After clicking the link and entering his bank card number and verification code as requested, Mr. Tang discovered that money had been deducted from his bank account, resulting in a loss of over one million RMB. He reported the case to the police. Following the report, the police quickly formed a special investigation team and identified the criminal gang led by individuals named Miao and Wang. From April 22 to 23, the police conducted a coordinated crackdown in Qingpu District and arrested 11 suspects involved in the case. Investigation revealed that the gang sold the virtual currency accounts registered by recruited individuals to overseas fraudsters at a price of 40 to 50 RMB each, using them for money laundering and transferring funds. Currently, the main suspects Miao and Wang have been criminally detained, and multiple other suspects are subject to compulsory criminal measures in accordance with the law. The case is under further investigation, and the police have frozen and recovered part of the involved funds.
The Movement Labs and Mantra incidents have sparked widespread attention in the crypto market regarding market-making mechanisms. Some senior executives of Movement Labs are accused of colluding with their market makers to sell MOVE tokens worth $38 million on the open market. Meanwhile, Mantra’s OM token plummeted over 90% within hours at the end of April without any obvious negative news, raising market concerns over token unlocking schedules and the transparency of over-the-counter (OTC) trading. Analysts believe these events have exposed how hidden contracts, non-public agreements, and OTC trades distort token supply and price discovery mechanisms in the crypto market. Several market-making firms are reassessing their token underwriting risk processes and demanding greater transparency from project teams. Industry insiders note that informal OTC trading is disrupting token supply dynamics and increasing the difficulty for market makers to maintain liquidity.
CZ released several security tips to prevent phishing attacks:
1. Never disclose your password to anyone claiming to be “customer service”. Genuine customer service representatives will never ask users for their passwords.
2. Do not click on links received in emails. Always log in by manually typing the website address or using bookmarks. Before entering any password, triple-check that the site is not a phishing website.
3. Avoid using the same password across multiple sites. Use a password manager to create unique and strong passwords for each site. Password managers also won’t autofill your password on phishing domains.
4. Use hardware two-factor authentication (2FA) devices like Yubikey, which can prevent most phishing attacks.
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Over the past seven days, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, trading volume, market activity, and altcoin price performance have all continued to rise. ETF funds have seen sustained net inflows, while the prices of mainstream coins and large-cap altcoins in the spot market have also continued their upward trend. Currently, the Fear and Greed Index stands at 73, remaining within the recent mid-range of market sentiment.
3. Perpetual Futures
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 9 exchanges are 1.25% and 1.1813%, respectively, indicating strong bullish sentiment across the market as of May 22, with heightened expectations of a continued uptrend in the market.
4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments
Macroeconomy
1) On May 15, the U.S. adjusted the tariffs imposed on China at 00:01 AM (ET) on May 14.
2) On May 15, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 were 229,000, in line with expectations of 229,000. The previous figure was revised from 228,000 to 229,000. The U.S. has proposed a 5% tax on remittances by non-citizens.
3) On May 16, the UK’s preliminary Q1 GDP annual growth was 1.3%, higher than the expected 1.2%, but lower than the previous 1.5%.
4) On May 16, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund announced plans to invest an additional $500 billion in the U.S. over the next 10 years.
5) On May 17, the Eurozone’s final April CPI MoM was 0.6%, in line with the expected 0.60% and previous 0.60%. The final April CPI YoY was 2.2%, also matching expectations and the previous value.
6) On May 17, Japan may not reach a trade agreement with the U.S. before the end of July and is considering accepting tariff reductions rather than exemptions. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that if the economy and prices improve as forecasted, rate hikes will continue.
7) On May 18, a United Nations report stated that the global economic outlook is worsening and faces high uncertainty.
8) On May 18, Trump said the U.S. will impose new tariffs on many countries within the next two to three weeks and that many good things will happen in the coming month. His tax bill failed to pass in a House subcommittee.
9) On May 19, Bank of England policymaker Dhingra expressed support for a 50-basis-point rate cut as a statement on the economic direction.
10) On May 20, the European Commission lowered its 2025 Eurozone GDP growth forecast from 1.3% (November projection) to 0.9%. The Eurozone consumer inflation rate is expected to slow from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025.
11) On May 21, the UK’s April CPI MoM was 1.2%, higher than the expected 1.1% and up from the previous 0.30%.
Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:
1) On May 15, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala disclosed holdings of over $400 million in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF.
2) On May 15, Tiger Brokers (Hong Kong) launched a crypto deposit and withdrawal service, supporting major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.
3) On May 16, Coinbase reported a data breach and stated that it had rejected a $20 million ransom demand from hackers. The Coinbase CEO remarked that crypto would “become part of everyone’s 401(k) retirement plan”. In 2023, Coinbase spent $6.2 million on personal security for its CEO—more than the combined amount spent by JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Nvidia on executive protection.
4) On May 16, a research report showed memecoins occupy 41% of the AI crypto market, but DeFAI continues to show growth momentum.
5) On May 17, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo responded: “I don’t really trust Moody’s.”
6) On May 17, Grayscale’s Head of Research expressed a bullish outlook on Bitcoin from a macroeconomic perspective.
7) On May 18, the New York Fed and the Bank for International Settlements released a research paper testing tokenized monetary policy tools.
8) On May 18, the 2025 Bitcoin mining trend showed that post-halving, the hashrate had reached record highs, with energy arbitrage driving the migration of mining companies.
9) On May 19, a report showed that among 295 traditional banks, financial institutions, and payment gateways, over 90% are deploying stablecoin strategies, with banks focusing on accelerating cross-border payments and settlements.
10) On May 19, Bubblemaps reported that a memecoin linked to Eric Trump, Donald Trump’s second son, appears to be a scam.
11) On May 19, it was announced that a former Norwegian State Secretary would assume the role of Secretary General at the Bitcoin Policy Institute in August.
12) On May 20, the author of “The Bitcoin Standard” announced funding for developers to clean up on-chain BTC spam data.
13) On May 20, Mastercard announced plans to partner with MoonPay to launch a new stablecoin card.
14) On May 21, Telegram conducted a mass ban of accounts. The dark web marketplace Huione Guarantee (also known as Haowang Guarantee) announced the suspension of its operations.
15) On May 21, 10T Holdings reported that many crypto startups are scaring away VCs with valuation multiples of 50x to 80x.
16) On May 21, active users on Ethereum DEXs surged by 73%, with Uniswap maintaining a 97% market dominance.
Regulation & Crypto Policy:
1) On May 15, Brazil’s central bank proposed strict regulations on stablecoin transfers.
2) On May 15, Ukraine announced plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve under a new crypto law.
3) On May 15, the Central Bank of Russia named Bitcoin the best-performing asset in the country’s financial market for April 2025.
4) On May 16, France announced a crypto industry security summit in response to a series of kidnappings; the Ministry of the Interior stated it would offer enhanced security measures for the country’s top crypto entrepreneurs.
5) On May 16, Vladimir Smerkis, co-founder of Blum, was arrested in Moscow for alleged large-scale fraud.
6) On May 16, the U.S. GENIUS Act amendment barred non-financial public companies from issuing stablecoins and restricted financial expansion by large tech firms.
7) On May 17, the Nebraska Legislature passed Bill LB 526, imposing new requirements and cost pressures on Bitcoin mining operations.
8) On May 17, U.S. Democrats requested that the Treasury Department provide “suspicious activity reports” related to Trump’s crypto investments, also mentioning Justin Sun. The U.S. stablecoin bill may pass on May 26, with provisions targeting the Trump family removed.
9) On May 17, the U.S. SEC released a crypto FAQ addressing digital asset activity and distributed ledger technology, covering broker-dealer and ETP regulations.
10) On May 18, the Hong Kong Police Force announced the deployment of its virtual asset analysis tool, CryptoTrace.
11) On May 18, Dubai regulators set June 19 as the compliance deadline for new crypto regulations. The Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority strengthened oversight of crypto margin trading and updated its regulatory rulebook.
12) On May 18, the UK mandated that crypto companies must report every user and transaction or face severe penalties.
13) On May 19, a user manager at a Beijing internet company was sentenced to 12 years for accepting bribes and embezzling nearly 10 million RMB in crypto through cash-out schemes.
14) On May 19, Ripple received regulatory approval in Dubai and announced blockchain payment partnerships with Zand Bank and Mamo.
15) On May 20, a report revealed a surge in crypto-related crimes in the Western Balkans, with cases involving tens of millions of euros.
16) On May 20, Japan’s financial regulators called on domestic banks to adopt next-generation cryptographic technologies.
17) On May 21, the U.S. SEC delayed its decision on spot ETF applications for Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, citing the need for more time to assess legal and policy issues. The SEC’s new acting inspector general listed cracking down on crypto fraud as a top priority. The SEC Chair pledged to improve transparency and accountability in crypto regulation and avoid overregulation when drafting new rules.
18) On May 21, the Texas Legislature passed a Bitcoin reserve bill awaiting the governor’s signature, aiming for a fund size of $500 billion.
Other News:
1) On May 15, the FBI warned of escalating AI scams, with hackers using deepfake audio to impersonate senior U.S. officials.
2) On May 18, OpenAI launched Code Agent, ushering in a new era of automated programming.
3) On May 21, ChainGPT announced a partnership with Alibaba Cloud to scale its Solidity LLM and AIVM network using GPU infrastructure.
5. Market Outlook
From May 22 to May 28, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively. It is recommended to place a sell order for the ETH spot at $5,125 and set buy orders for bottom-fishing at $1,240.
On May 15, Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped significantly this month, sparking hopes for a full-fledged altseason or a bull market expansion beyond BTC that could boost the valuation of other segments in the digital asset market. Joao Wedson, CEO and founder of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, expects a full altcoin season to arrive in June. Bitcoin dominance — a measure of the leading cryptocurrency’s share in the overall digital asset market — fell from around 65% to 62% within a week, ending a five-month upward trend. Meanwhile, the total crypto market cap rose from $2.9 trillion to $3.24 trillion. This contrast indicates that investor interest is shifting from Bitcoin to select altcoins.
According to Wedson, altseason has already begun, and BTC dominance is expected to decline rapidly in the coming months. Wedson’s proprietary Altseason Index, which tracks 57 selected altcoins, shows that 37 of them have outperformed BTC over the past 60 days. In a detailed post on X, Wedson stated: “Even if BTC drops in the coming weeks, most altcoins have already bottomed out and are unlikely to fall below recent price levels. A portion of Bitcoin’s $2 trillion market cap will likely flow into altcoins. So be sure to analyze your altcoin/BTC trading pairs (e.g., ETH/BTC or COTI/BTC).” However, broader indicators suggest that the bull market has not yet fully extended beyond BTC. For instance, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Index — which tracks the top 100 altcoins — remains at 27, indicating it is still a “Bitcoin season.”
Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.