FameEX Weekly Market Trend | May 29, 2025
2025-05-29 12:53:23
1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends
From May 22 to May 28, the BTC spot price swung from $106,748.66 to $110,574.67, a 3.58% range.
Recent important remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) in the past few days are as follows:
1) On May 22, Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decline, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025.
2) On May 23, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in support of the Fed’s independence, stating that Trump cannot dismiss Chairman Powell.
Fed’s Williams said that due to a lack of historical experience, it is difficult to gauge the appropriate level of reserves in the market.
Governor Waller stated that if tariffs approach 10%, the economy will remain in good shape in the second half of the year. If tariffs decline, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. He still believes that tariffs will lead to a one-time price increase.
3) On May 24, Fed’s Goolsbee said that 50% EU tariffs are an order of magnitude higher than current levels, and such high tariff levels will severely impact supply chains. In the short term, the Fed needs to wait for more clarity before taking action, and the threshold for action is high. A rate cut is still possible within the next 10 to 16 months.
4) On May 26, Fed’s Kashkari said that it is “uncertain” whether interest rates will be adjusted before September this year, and all future scenarios are possible. Tariff negotiations may take months or years, and he supports holding steady for now.
5) On May 28, the Fed meeting minutes stated that uncertainty has increased compared to the average level over the past 20 years. Options pricing suggests one to two rate cuts within the year. The economic drag from tariff policies is greater than previously expected. There are risks of labor market weakness, rising inflation, and increasing unemployment. All participants agreed that uncertainty around the economic outlook has risen, and adopting a cautious monetary policy is appropriate.
Barkin said consumers have begun to expect rising inflation, which has affected market sentiment, but there is currently no evidence that this has led to reduced consumer spending.
Williams stated that the level of U.S. reserves remains clearly ample, and having reserves as a buffer is crucial in times of major shocks. For emerging market economies, exchange rates are a very important factor affecting inflation and demand. It is vital to keep inflation expectations well anchored and to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent.
6) On May 22, ECB Vice President Guindos said that eurozone bond yields have decoupled from those of the U.S., and the yield spread is within a controllable range. The swap line arrangement with the Fed has always been very positive and will continue.
Governing Council member Centeno said that to prevent inflation from falling below 2%, interest rates may need to fall below the neutral rate of 1.5%-2%.
7) On May 23, ECB meeting minutes revealed that some members indicated they might be comfortable with a 50 basis point rate cut. The rate cut in April could be seen as a preemptive move ahead of the June monetary policy adjustment. The euro appears to be transforming into a safe-haven currency. Inflation is expected to stay near the 2% target for the rest of the year, and policy may remain restrictive.
Governing Council member Vujcic expected inflation to approach the 2% target by the end of 2025 and reach it in early 2026. Eurozone economic growth is positive but slow.
Governing Council member Nagel said that the current interest rate level is not yet restrictive and can no longer be called restrictive. He still expects to achieve the 2% inflation target before 2025.
8) On May 27, ECB President Lagarde said that U.S. policies provide an opportunity to enhance the euro’s global status, and the dominance of the dollar is becoming uncertain.
Governing Council member Holzmann said that the ECB should at least postpone further rate cut plans until September.
Governing Council member Simkus said that there is still room for further rate cuts in June, and the risk of inflation falling below 2% is higher.
Governing Council member Villeroy said that the normalization of eurozone interest rates may not yet be complete.
9) On May 28, an ECB spokesperson stated that President Lagarde is committed to completing her term at the European Central Bank.
Overall, statements from Fed officials waver between rate cuts and a wait-and-see approach. Statements from ECB officials are a mix of hawkish and dovish tones, with a less clear overall direction compared to the recent remarks from the Fed.
According to the Associated Press, three sources familiar with the matter revealed that U.S. President Trump has raised at least $600 million in political donations for the midterm elections. This is an unprecedented figure in modern politics, especially for a “lame-duck” president who is constitutionally barred from running for office again. Sources indicated that Trump’s ultimate goal is to raise $1 billion or more and to take control of both the House and Senate in November next year. He is eager to reverse the trend of Republican candidates frequently being outpaced by Democrats and aims to maximize the influence of the presidency. Any remaining funds after his term ends could help him maintain significant influence over the Republican Party, solidifying his role as the most influential decision-maker and potential power broker in 2028 and beyond.
SlowMist has officially released an analysis of the malicious browser extension “Osiris”, highlighting the following findings: This malicious extension replaces users’ legitimate download links with links to malicious programs. As a result, users unknowingly download and install malware, leading to the loss of crypto assets.
Once attackers obtain the data, they may attempt to decode it to extract Web3 wallet private keys or mnemonic phrases, enabling them to steal users' assets. They can also access account credentials saved in Chrome, potentially taking over users’ social media and crypto platform accounts. These types of extensions, disguised as “security tools”, steal crypto assets and user data by hijacking download links and injecting malicious code. Some users have already suffered losses. In light of this, users are strongly advised to avoid installing unknown programs or extensions and to be cautious of tools or solutions recommended by strangers.
Solana founder Toly stated on platform X that crypto founders should conduct proactive quarterly reflections to prepare for extreme market scenarios. He posed the following questions for projects to consider in the event of a 95% market crash:
1) What product will the team focus on developing over the next 18 months before the market rebounds?
2) How will the most suitable team be assembled to focus on that product?
3) Is there enough short-term cash to support this process?
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index:https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
In recent days, the total cryptocurrency market cap and trading volume have remained steady, with overall market activity fluctuating within a narrow range. The Altcoin Season Index indicates a continued rise in altcoin prices. ETF funds have seen sustained net inflows, reflecting strong market confidence. Meanwhile, the prices of major cryptocurrencies and large-cap altcoins are also moving within a tight range. The current Fear and Greed Index stands at 65, remaining in the mid-range of recent levels.
3. Perpetual Futures
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 9 exchanges are 0.9813% and 1.508%, respectively, indicating strong bullish sentiment across the market as of May 22, with heightened expectations of a continued uptrend in the market.
4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments
Macroeconomy
1) On May 22, the U.S. House of Representatives passed Trump’s tax reform bill, which includes major tax cuts, reductions in social spending, and an increase in federal debt. Democrats criticized the bill as benefiting the wealthy and undermining social security.
2) On May 23, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, better than the expected 230,000 and down from the previous 229,000.
3) On May 24, Fed officials encouraged institutions to actively use the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to address market liquidity challenges. SOMA (System Open Market Account) manager Lorie Logan echoed the call for institutions to utilize the SRF more actively.
4) On May 25, Japan’s core CPI for April rose 3.5% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.4% and higher than the previous 3.2%.
5) On May 26, Bank of Japan Policy Board member Asahi Noguchi stated that there is no need to make major adjustments to the current balance sheet reduction plan, and that the central bank should only intervene if there is “serious disruption” in the bond market.
6) On May 26, former President Trump agreed in the early hours to extend the deadline for imposing tariffs on the EU to July 9.
7) On May 27, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that due to rising uncertainties, particularly those related to trade policy, the BOJ recently revised down its economic and inflation outlook. He added that the bank will adjust the degree of monetary easing as needed to achieve a sustainable 2% inflation target, noting that short- to medium-term interest rate fluctuations have a greater impact on economic activity.
Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:
1) On May 22, CZ (Changpeng Zhao) posted on X: “We are doing our best to help SUI. Things are not looking great. Hope everyone stays SAFU.”
2) On May 22, the TON Foundation appointed former Visa executive Nikola Plecas as Vice President of Payments.
3) On May 23, The Wall Street Journal reported that several major U.S. banks are in discussions to jointly issue a stablecoin.
4) On May 23, Vietnamese police arrested a group allegedly behind the crypto scam “Matrix Chain”, which defrauded investors of nearly $400 million.
5) On May 24, according to Cointelegraph, “Crypto Czar” and White House Director for Crypto and AI, David Sacks, stated at the Bitcoin 2025 conference: “We see blockchain, Bitcoin, and crypto as the future financial system.”
6) On May 24, SBF’s prison sentence was shortened by over 4 years, with the new expected release date set for December 14, 2044.
7) On May 25, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis claimed that four out of five Americans would support converting the U.S. gold reserves into Bitcoin.
8) On May 25, a report revealed that Cambodian government officials were allegedly involved in a $19 billion crypto fraud network.
9) On May 26, Google stated that the quantum resources required to crack Bitcoin may be 20 times less than previously estimated.
10) On May 26, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said that crypto will be a central part of the Trump administration’s economic strategy, calling it a hedge against surging inflation, with around 50 million Americans holding Bitcoin.
11) On May 27, Grayscale announced the launch of an “AI-Crypto Sector” as its sixth major crypto asset category.
12) On May 27, Trump Media unveiled a $2.5 billion Bitcoin vault plan.
13) On May 28, Worldpay announced it will support USDC stablecoin payments in the U.S. and Europe.
14) On May 28, a crypto KOL claimed that the Cetus team is the same group behind the 2022 Solana project hack, Crema.
Regulation & Crypto Policy:
1) On May 22, the U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that stablecoins are expected to generate $2 trillion in demand for Treasury bonds, and that Trump has paused the sovereign wealth fund initiative.
2) On May 22, South Korea announced it would allow non-profits and exchanges to sell cryptocurrencies under new FSC rules. Thailand’s SEC stated that government digital tokens (G-Tokens) are regulated by the SEC and cannot be used as a means of payment.
3) On May 23, the U.S. House of Representatives scheduled a review of the crypto market structure bill for June 10. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said NFT royalty mechanisms do not turn tokens into securities.
4) On May 23, Hong Kong’s Legislative Council passed the “Stablecoin Bill”. The Hong Kong SFC announced new licensing legislation for OTC virtual asset trading and custody, expected to take at least one year to implement.
5) On May 24, Pakistan established a Digital Asset Regulatory Authority to oversee the crypto industry.
6) On May 24, the UK Court of Appeal dismissed a $13.3 billion lawsuit brought by BSV investors against Binance. The UK FCA published a regulatory proposal on stablecoins and crypto assets.
7) On May 25, U.S. Democratic leaders introduced a bill targeting “crypto corruption”; Trump attended a crypto dinner and gave a speech, though it contained no substantial new content.
8) On May 25, the Governor of Texas expressed support for a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill. The SEC is reviewing a proposal to list and trade options on the Nasdaq Bitcoin Index.
9) On May 26, the Dubai Land Department launched a property tokenization platform based on XRP Ledger, projected to reach a $16 billion scale by 2033.
10) On May 26, Kazakhstan announced it will legalize crypto-to-fiat exchange services through licensing.
11) On May 27, lawmakers in Michigan introduced four crypto-related bills, including HB 4510, which would allow public pension funds to invest in Bitcoin through regulated exchange-traded products.
12) On May 28, U.S. banking groups urged the SEC to repeal its cybersecurity incident disclosure rule.
13) On May 28, the U.S. Department of Justice seized $24 million in cryptocurrency from the developer of the Qakbot malware.
Other News:
1) On May 23, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Noem stated that following the move to block Harvard University from admitting foreign students, the Trump administration is considering taking similar actions at other universities.
2) On May 25, the 2025 “Golden Finger List” of the investment world was released: Alfred Lin retained the top spot, and three of the Top 10 were selected for their investments in Coinbase.
3) On May 28, a member of the DOGE unit under Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency was granted authority to restructure the U.S. Department of the Interior.
5. Market Outlook
From May 29 to June 4, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively. It is recommended to place a sell order for the ETH spot at $5,125 and set buy orders for bottom-fishing at $1,240.
Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.