FameEX Hot Topics | Changing Views on Bitcoin’s Portfolio Role Strengthen $100K Price Floor

Since May 10, Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim and hold above the critical $105,000 resistance level, casting doubt on the strength of its recent rally. Despite briefly rebounding to $104,000, a sharp decline in demand for leveraged long positions suggests traders are turning cautious. This shift is evident in the drop of Bitcoin’s futures premium, which reflects traders’ appetite for bullish leverage and short-term confidence in price appreciation.

On May 14, the annualized premium on Bitcoin futures rose to 7% but quickly fell to 5%, a level typically viewed as neutral to slightly bearish. This mirrors conditions seen four weeks earlier, when Bitcoin was trading near $84,500. The pullback in futures premium is likely linked to broader macroeconomic concerns. Bitcoin’s price action has become increasingly synchronized with the S&P 500, indicating that traders are responding to traditional financial market signals rather than crypto-native catalysts.

A notable example of this connection occurred on May 15, when S&P 500 futures reversed early losses, and Bitcoin rebounded from $101,800 to $104,000. This rally came as markets responded to speculation that the U.S. Treasury might soon inject liquidity to counter potential economic headwinds. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had earlier warned that persistent “supply shocks” could keep interest rates elevated for longer. Adding to investor caution, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a surprise 0.5% decline in April’s Producer Price Index (PPI), in contrast to the 0.2% increase expected by economists.

In response to this uncertain macro backdrop, demand for safer assets has grown. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries dropped from 4.55% on May 14 to 4.45% the following day. Typically, Bitcoin benefits from rising yields, which suggest declining confidence in government debt. However, the recent yield drop reflects growing economic pessimism, which can pressure risk assets like Bitcoin. Even so, the derivatives market does not currently indicate an expectation of significant downside risk for BTC.

Despite a neutral BTC delta skew of -4%, Bitcoin put options continue to trade at a discount to calls, showing that traders maintain confidence in the $100,000 support zone. Meanwhile, a $320 million net inflow into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs on May 14 underscores growing institutional interest. As more investors view Bitcoin as a macro-hedge or uncorrelated asset, the need for excessive leverage may diminish—potentially stabilizing its price even in uncertain conditions.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.