FameEX Weekly Market Trend | May 15, 2025
2025-05-15 13:20:40
1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends
From May 12 to May 14, the BTC spot price swung from $100,741.98 to $105,870.11, a 5.09% range.
Key Statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) in the Past Three Days:
1) On May 12, Fed Governor Kugler stated that she supports keeping interest rates at the current restrictive level. The Fed is well-positioned to respond to changes in the macroeconomic outlook and still believes tariffs have a significant impact.
2) On May 14, Fed’s Goolsbee said that some parts of April’s inflation reflect the lagging nature of the data. The Fed remains in a wait-and-see mode, and current inflation trends will take time to show up in the data. Now is the time for the Fed to wait for more information and try to filter out data noise.
Vice Chair Jefferson noted that the current moderately restrictive policy rate is well-suited to respond to economic changes. Tariffs may lead to rising inflation, but it is still uncertain whether the impact will be temporary or lasting.
The Fed Board also warned that stablecoins could pose risks to bank deposits and credit capacity.
3) On May 13, the ECB said it would stick to the aggressive stimulus policies of the past decade in its strategic review, avoiding calls for self-criticism despite high inflation and heavy losses.
4) On May 14, ECB Governing Council member Nagel said it is highly likely that the ECB will achieve its 2% inflation target.
Council member Makhlouf stated that, given the scale, scope, and duration of shocks caused by fragmentation, monetary policy responses will need to be carefully adjusted.
Council member Villeroy said that Trump’s tariffs have intensified inflation in the U.S., not in Europe, and that another rate cut may happen in the summer.
Overall, statements from Fed officials lean toward a wait-and-see approach, while ECB officials are more inclined to continue rate cuts.
Michael Nadeau, the founder of DeFi Report, shared his insights on ETH market trends on X:
1) Over the past few days, ETH open interest has increased by 40%, indicating a surge in leveraged long positions.
2) ETH spot trading volume has jumped from $4–6 billion per day to $15–18 billion, suggesting real capital inflows.
3) The funding rate has risen from 0.005% to 0.03%.
4) ETH short liquidations have exceeded $85 million in recent days.
In summary, ETH is currently experiencing “real capital inflows, increased long positions, and short squeezes”—a triple force driving the price upward.
Backpack Exchange announced that it would officially launch the withdrawal process for former FTX EU users on May 12, 2025. Back in Q1 2025 (January 7), Backpack Exchange acquired FTX EU and took on the responsibility of distributing frozen customer funds that were locked since FTX filed for bankruptcy. As part of this effort, Backpack launched a dedicated KYC page for former FTX EU users in April to prepare for the upcoming withdrawal process. The launch marks the final step for former FTX EU users to reclaim their funds.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) issued a major security warning today regarding the hacking of the Ledger Discord admin account.
He revealed that the attacker breached the official Ledger Discord admin account and published a fake vulnerability alert to lure users into visiting a phishing site and submitting their 24-word recovery phrases. CZ stressed: “No matter who asks—never give out your recovery phrase.” He also highlighted that social media accounts are often the weakest security link for crypto companies.
In this attack, the hacker crafted deceptive messages that included a fake compensation plan, falsely claiming that Ledger’s security flaw could expose users’ seed phrases. The phishing domain used was highly misleading. CZ’s warning underscores the evolving threat of social engineering in crypto, particularly the growing risk of official communication channels being hijacked.
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Over the past three days, the total cryptocurrency market cap, trading volume, market activity, and the price increase of altcoins have all slowed down. The spot prices of major coins and large-cap altcoins have declined. The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 71, reflecting a mid-range level of market sentiment in recent days.
3. Perpetual Futures
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 9 exchanges are 0.5978% and 1.2279%, respectively, indicating strong bullish sentiment across the market as of May 15, with heightened expectations of a continued uptrend in the market.
BTC:
ETH:
Over the past three days, BTC contract open interest has remained relatively stable, while ETH continues to see an increase — indicating that short-term participants with higher risk appetite remain strongly optimistic.
4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments
Macroeconomy
1) On May 12, the U.S. announced it would retain tariffs on the remaining 10% of goods while canceling or suspending other additional tariffs. In response, China announced it would suspend the 24% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods for 90 days but retain the remaining 10% tariffs.
2) On May 12, the Eurogroup President stated that the EU is clearly pushing for zero tariffs with the U.S.
3) On May 12, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said that monetary policy may need to remain tighter for longer to ensure CPI returns to target. MPC member Megan Greene noted she is torn over whether to cut interest rates.
4) On May 13, the U.S. April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% and up from -0.1% previously. The unadjusted YoY CPI for April came in at 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, compared to the 2.4% market forecast.
5) On May 13, the UAE pledged to invest $1.4 trillion in the U.S. over the next 10 years.
6) On May 13, the UK reported an unemployment rate of 4.5% for April, down from the previous 4.6%. The number of jobless claims in April was 5,200, revised from a previous value of 18,700 to -16,900.
7) On May 14, the U.S. reported record-breaking tariff revenues for April, with the budget surplus reaching the second highest in history.
8) On May 14, China’s M2 money supply grew by 8% YoY in April, beating the 7.2% forecast and up from the previous 7%. M1 grew by 1.5% YoY.
9) On May 14, Bank of England MPC member Catherine Mann stated that the U.S. dollar remains the dominant global currency. Chief Economist Huw Pill reiterated that monetary policy may need to remain tighter for longer to return CPI to target.
Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:
1) On May 12, it was reported that eight major crypto companies have entered the U.S. market so far in 2025.
2) On May 12, security expert Sunwear claimed that ChangeNOW is a scam site that intercepts user transactions by enforcing impossible KYC requirements.
3) On May 12, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded its 20th consecutive day of net inflows, marking the longest streak for a spot Bitcoin ETF so far in 2025.
4) On May 12, Malaysia’s national energy company revealed that illegal crypto mining has led to a 300% surge in electricity theft.
5) On May 13, a BIS report stated that capital flow management measures appear largely ineffective in the context of crypto trading.
6) On May 13, U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase was reported to be joining the S&P 500 index.
7) On May 13, the Radiant DAO community published a proposal to compensate for losses caused by an unlimited approval vulnerability. Meanwhile, ZKSync responded to a U.S. regulatory investigation by advising domestic users to avoid high-risk actions.
8) On May 13, the Governor of Arizona signed the anti-fraud bill HB 2387 targeting crypto ATMs.
9) On May 14, DeFi development activity surged 20%, and Solana’s total value locked surpassed $100 million.
10) On May 14, Hong Kong-based crypto investment firm Animoca Brands was reported to be planning a New York IPO.
11) On May 14, the Ethereum Foundation announced the launch of its “Trillion-Dollar Security Initiative”.
12) On May 14, Tiger Brokers (Hong Kong) launched a crypto deposit and withdrawal service, supporting major cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH.
Regulation & Crypto Policy:
1) On May 12, the U.S. Treasury announced a series of crypto policy roundtable discussions this week, focusing on four key areas: stablecoins, decentralized finance (DeFi), banking relationships, and cybersecurity.
2) On May 12, Irish presidential candidate Conor McGregor met with El Salvador’s president to discuss strategic Bitcoin reserves.
3) On May 12, Nansha District in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China, announced plans to develop an integrated platform for blockchain and digital asset applications.
4) On May 12, the CEO of Bhutan’s sovereign wealth fund DHI stated that the fund is pursuing a differentiated strategy by combining green energy and Bitcoin.
5) On May 12, the Senate of the Northern Mariana Islands in the U.S. overrode the governor’s veto, giving a stablecoin bill another chance at review.
6) On May 13, the U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary stated that market structure rules for cryptocurrencies could ultimately become the foundation for broader financial regulation in the U.S.
7) On May 13, the U.S. SEC indicated it may overhaul broker-dealer rules for crypto; the new SEC chair also unveiled a friendlier vision for crypto regulation.
8) On May 13, New York City Mayor Eric Adams reiterated his ambition to make NYC the “global crypto capital”, ramping up crypto initiatives ahead of the May 20 crypto summit.
9) On May 13, Latvia’s Minister of Economics stated that building strategic Bitcoin reserves is “only a matter of time”.
10) On May 13, Dubai announced a partnership with Crypto.com to accept cryptocurrency payments for public service fees.
11) On May 14, the Australian government appointed Andrew Charlton as Assistant Minister for Technology and the Digital Economy, and Cabinet Secretary, to advance digital asset regulation and tech modernization.
12) On May 14, South Korea’s Democratic Party formed a Digital Assets Committee ahead of the presidential election.
13) On May 14, the hacker who hijacked the SEC’s X account to post a fake Bitcoin ETF approval may face up to two years in prison.
14) On May 14, the Governor of Arizona vetoed two crypto-related bills but signed a law aimed at preventing ATM fraud.
Other News:
1) On May 12, Microsoft and OpenAI renegotiated their investment agreement, possibly relinquishing some equity to maintain access rights.
2) On May 13, Trump announced a $600 billion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia; the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed an economic cooperation agreement covering energy, mining, and defense sectors.
3) On May 14, U.S. President Trump declared: “I am a big crypto fan.”
4) On May 14, Saudi Arabia and NVIDIA announced an artificial intelligence partnership; NVIDIA is building an AI factory in Saudi Arabia and will sell 18,000 of its latest AI chips to the kingdom.
5. Market Outlook
From May 15 to May 21, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively. It is recommended to place a sell order for the ETH spot at $5,125 and set buy orders for bottom-fishing at $1,240.
Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.