FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Set for 25% Gain After Current Dip, If History Rhymes

Bitcoin’s price recently fell to $103,300 as traders began reducing their risk exposure ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Wednesday’s anticipated interest rate decision. This price decline follows a bearish weekly candle close, which some analysts interpret as a possible signal of a trend reversal. The caution in the markets is also being fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, most notably the conflict between Israel and Iran, contributing to a broader global risk-off sentiment.

Analysts from Bitcoin Vector, supported by Swissblock, suggest that the decline is not solely attributable to macroeconomic events. The dip aligns with a period of seasonal weakness and slowing on-chain network growth, which together indicate a decrease in spot demand. Additionally, more than $434 million in Bitcoin futures were liquidated over a single 24-hour period, suggesting the market correction is being driven largely by excessive leverage. Traders are choosing to de-risk rather than open new speculative positions, pointing to a cautious shift in market behavior.

Adding to the pressure are mid-cycle holders—investors who have held Bitcoin for six to twelve months. According to Glassnode, this group realized $904 million in profits on Monday, accounting for a substantial 83% of total realized gains. This is a notable shift from previous patterns where long-term holders, those holding for over a year, were more active in profit realization. The data implies that newer participants are seizing the opportunity to lock in gains after recent highs.

Despite short-term selling, long-term sentiment remains optimistic. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. points out that long-term holders are not selling in large volumes, a behavior often associated with bullish market phases. Supporting this perspective, the MVRV Z-score shows Bitcoin remains fundamentally undervalued, and the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric continues to signal positive momentum. Historically, similar setups have led to price rallies of 18–25% over the following six to eight weeks, which could see Bitcoin climbing to $130,000 by the end of Q2.

Technically, Bitcoin is approaching a short-term bottom within the $102,000–$104,000 support zone, a historically significant liquidity area. Bollinger Bands suggest a potential rebound, with resistance near $106,000. A close above $106,748 could spark a rally toward $112,000. However, if Bitcoin decisively falls below $100,000, the bullish setup could be invalidated, exposing downside risk toward $98,000.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.