FameEX Hot Topics | Ethereum Chart Divergence Signals Caution, On-Chain Data Points to $4.5K Rally

Ethereum has been trading just below the $4,000 resistance level since December 2025, and traders are left uncertain about whether the price will break through anytime soon. Despite the challenges of crossing the $4,000 mark, one key target for bullish traders lies at the +1σ active realized price band, which is currently hovering near $4,500. This metric tracks the average cost of Ethereum actively changing hands on the network, offering a crucial benchmark for future price movements.

According to data from Glassnode, this $4,500 level has acted as a resistance ceiling during the March 2024 high and throughout the 2020-2021 market cycle. Historical data suggests that when Ethereum has broken above this level, rapid upward momentum typically follows. However, such a breakout also comes with the risk of overheating, leading to increased volatility and potential market corrections.

In a significant development, Ethereum perpetual futures have overtaken Bitcoin in volume dominance for the first time since 2022. This marks the largest shift in trading focus towards Ethereum ever recorded. Pseudonymous trader Byzantine General recently revised his short-term outlook, acknowledging Ethereum’s strength and stating that he was wrong about predicting short-term downside. He mentioned, “It’s too strong, refuses to print any significant correction… It’s looking like a just f***ing send it moment,” indicating the ongoing bullish sentiment.

Supporting this narrative are Ethereum’s liquidation maps, which show a dense cluster of short liquidations just above the $4,000 threshold. A move above this level could trigger as much as $930 million in liquidations, potentially fueling a sharp upward movement toward $4,500. This potential for liquidation-driven price acceleration has traders closely watching for a breakout.

However, while bullish momentum remains strong, a critical technical signal could undermine the current rally. On both the four-hour and one-day timeframes, Ethereum’s price has posted new local highs, but the relative strength index (RSI) has failed to confirm these movements, leading to bearish divergences. These divergences could signal buyer exhaustion, hinting at a potential pullback. If Ethereum fails to maintain momentum and volume above the $4,000 mark, a short-term pullback toward key support zones cannot be ruled out.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.