FameEX Hot Topics | Will ETH Hit $5K After Friday’s $5 Billion Options Expiry?

The upcoming $5 billion ETH options expiry on Friday is shaping up to be a pivotal event for the cryptocurrency market. After gaining 22% over the past 30 days, ETH has strengthened its bullish positioning, potentially setting the stage for a move above the $5,000 mark. The outcome of this expiry could serve as the catalyst for the next leg higher, consolidating ETH’s status as one of the leading digital assets in the market.

Currently valued at $557 billion, ETH ranks among the top 30 tradable assets worldwide, surpassing major corporations such as Mastercard and Exxon Mobil in market capitalization. Although the comparison between cryptocurrencies and traditional equities remains debated, historical patterns show that ETH maintains a notable correlation with the S&P 500. This relationship suggests that investors often assess ETH through a similar lens as stocks, factoring in macroeconomic conditions and broader market risk sentiment.

Over the past year, ETH’s correlation with the S&P 500 has frequently exceeded 80%, reflecting the strong ties between crypto and equity markets. However, there was a brief two-week period in late July when this correlation inverted, highlighting the occasional divergence between the two. Given that corporate earnings—particularly from artificial intelligence–driven companies—have heavily influenced equity markets, ETH traders are closely monitoring those same earnings reports, anticipating potential spillover effects into crypto prices. Within the options market, call contracts dominate, with $2.75 billion in open interest compared to $2.25 billion in put contracts. 

Importantly, only 6% of ETH put options sit at $4,600 or above, rendering most neutral-to-bearish bets largely ineffective. By contrast, 71% of call options are positioned at $4,600 or lower, with significant clusters concentrated at $4,400 and $4,500. This imbalance favors bulls, who are expected to defend these levels into expiry. Even if ETH retraces toward $4,400, bullish strategies remain profitable, leaving traders optimistic. Whether ETH climbs above $5,000 in the near term will likely hinge on market sentiment and broader global economic conditions.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.