FameEX Hot Topics | ETH $4,000 Comeback Fades – Derivatives Data Delivers Bearish Verdict

Ethereum sentiment is deteriorating as whales remain on the sidelines, unconvinced by the 15% rebound from last Friday’s $2,623 low. Both on-chain metrics and derivatives positioning paint a cautious picture, significantly lowering the probability of a convincing rally to $4,000 in the near term. Traders are openly questioning what catalyst could reverse the current bearish momentum.

Since Monday, demand for leveraged bullish ETH positions has evaporated, reflected in perpetually flat or slightly negative funding rates on perpetual futures. Under normal market conditions, these rates should range between 6–12% annualized to balance capital costs, yet traders refuse to pay a premium for longs. Much of this hesitation traces back to the traumatic 20% flash crash on October 10, which triggered massive liquidations across CEXs and DEXs alike and shattered confidence.

On-chain activity confirms the slowdown: Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) has collapsed from $99.8 billion on October 9 to just $72.3 billion today, per DefiLlama. Network fees have fallen 13% week-over-week despite stable transaction counts, signaling shrinking deposits and reduced economic activity. This creates a dangerous feedback loop: lower fees → less ETH burned → rising inflationary pressure on the token’s supply, further weighing on price.

Historically, loose central bank liquidity has rescued risk assets from similar setups, but persistent uncertainty around U.S. employment data continues to sap trader appetite. With capital rotating into tech stocks and fixed-income markets instead, Ethereum lacks the fuel for a meaningful breakout. Until major central banks signal fresh stimulus or on-chain fundamentals reverse sharply, the path to $4,000 remains heavily obstructed, leaving whales and retail alike in wait-and-see mode.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.