The Reserve Bank of Australia backs tokenization and US bills target prediction markets as USD 18.6 billion in options expire Friday. BTC trades at $69K with extreme fear at index 9. The cryptocurrency market is currently gripped by extreme fear, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to 9, signaling deeply depressed investor sentiment. Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $70K threshold and is now trading around $69K in a downward trend. Analysts note that a sustained break above $70K would be required to shift the market structure toward a potential move to the $80,000 level. On the 4-hour chart, BTC has managed to hold above the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA). However, the 50-day EMA on the daily chart continues to act as overhead resistance. The market is currently characterized by futures-driven speculation alongside weak spot demand. Yesterday, total net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs reached only USD 78.069 million, primarily contributed by Fidelity’s FBTC, while BlackRock’s IBIT recorded net outflows of USD 70.7133 million. On-chain data shows that the standard deviation of profit and loss flows from short-term holders into a major CEX has compressed to low levels. Historically, such compression often precedes price movements in the range of 10% to 14%. In terms of liquidation data, if BTC breaks above $74,389, cumulative short liquidations across major CEX platforms could reach USD 1.578 billion. For ETH, a move above $2,259 would trigger short liquidations totaling USD 1.111 billion. Ethereum is currently consolidating above $2,100, while the broader market is awaiting the expiry of USD 18.6 billion in options this Friday, a key event that is likely to determine short-term direction.

Key News Highlights:

RBA Signals Support For RWA to Project Over USD 16 Billion Economic Upside

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has expressed clear support for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). According to its latest research, the tokenization of financial assets and related infrastructure upgrades could contribute approximately AUD 24 billion annually to the Australian economy, equivalent to about USD 16.7 billion in growth potential. Assistant Governor Brad Jones highlighted during a presentation of the “Project Acacia” research that tokenized finance is expected to bring transformative changes to the market. The industry focus has now shifted from questioning its viability to implementing practical applications. The initiative aims to explore how tokenized assets can improve efficiency in wholesale financial markets. It also involves collaboration with regulators and industry participants to establish a new Digital Financial Market Infrastructure (DFMI) sandbox. This sandbox will provide a controlled environment to test and scale tokenized money, assets, and new infrastructure, with potential integration into wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) systems. As global tokenized asset value is projected to reach USD 2 trillion by 2030, Australian authorities are actively positioning themselves to remain competitive in the evolving digital finance landscape.

US Lawmakers Propose Ban On Officials Participating in Prediction Markets to Curb Insider Risks

Bipartisan lawmakers in the United States have introduced the Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning, Trading, or Investing in Dangerous Contracts Act (PREDICT Act), which seeks to prohibit members of Congress, the President, the Vice President, and other senior government officials from participating in prediction markets. The proposal follows the rapid rise of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, where traders have generated significant profits by betting on major policy-related events including geopolitical conflicts and potential government shutdowns. This has raised concerns over the misuse of insider information by public officials. The bill extends restrictions beyond officials themselves to include their spouses and dependents, barring them from wagering on political events, policy decisions, or other government actions. The proposed penalties are substantial, including fines of up to 10% of contract value and the forfeiture of all profits to the US Treasury. This move reflects increasing regulatory pressure on prediction markets, with 11 states already taking legal action against related platforms. At the federal level, discussions are ongoing regarding a broader ban on listing contracts that resemble sports betting or casino-style instruments, in an effort to safeguard market integrity and public interest.

USD 18.6 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms As Bulls Face Critical Test

The cryptocurrency market is closely watching the upcoming expiry of USD 18.6 billion in Bitcoin monthly options this Friday, an event that could serve as a pivotal turning point for BTC’s attempt to break out of the $75,000 consolidation range. Data shows that open interest in March call options stands at USD 11.2 billion, significantly exceeding the USD 7.4 billion in put options. Despite this, bullish positioning remains under pressure. Bitcoin has failed to sustain levels above $74,000 over the past seven weeks. At the same time, macro uncertainties persist, including redemption restrictions in private credit funds and ongoing inflation pressures. These factors have given bears a psychological advantage heading into the quarterly settlement. Options distribution on a major CEX indicates that approximately 92% of call options are set with strike prices above $71,000. This suggests that if BTC fails to stage a meaningful rally before expiry, a large portion of call contracts could expire worthless. Analysts estimate that bulls would need at least a 6% rebound from the current level around $70,900 to shift the outcome of the March expiry in their favor. Otherwise, the market may continue to trade under bearish pressure at lower levels.

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