FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Price Consistently Surges 50% When These Patterns Appear

Bitcoin price rallies often stem from investor concerns about inflation or surprisingly strong economic data. However, clear indicators of an upcoming surge are rare. Analysts have identified a pattern where three independent events—looser Federal Reserve policy expectations, low crypto market leverage, and strong U.S. retail data—align to spark rallies of 50% or more. When these signals converge, they have historically triggered significant upward momentum for Bitcoin.

The most recent example occurred in early 2024, when Bitcoin climbed from $40,000 to $73,500 within seven weeks. At that time, the U.S. Federal Reserve had signaled a slower pace of monetary tightening, crypto market leverage was low, and retail sales beat expectations. A similar alignment happened in early 2023, lifting Bitcoin from $16,700 to $25,100 over a comparable timeframe. Going further back, July to September 2021 saw Bitcoin jump 76% under the same conditions.

In December 2023, Bitcoin had stagnated near $43,000. A breakout attempt to $48,000 in early January 2024 failed, resulting in a sharp correction to $37,800 by late January. This decline, however, marked the beginning of a bullish seven-week run. One major trigger was the unusually low perpetual futures funding rate, which stood at just 4% annually—indicating minimal speculative leverage in the market, a condition that often precedes upward momentum.

Additionally, stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data for December 2023, released on January 17, 2024, showed a 0.6% monthly gain versus the forecasted 0.4%. Then, on January 31, 2024, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a continued hawkish stance, with no imminent rate cuts—fueling the idea that inflation would remain under control without aggressive monetary loosening. Both factors contributed to renewed investor confidence.

A nearly identical pattern was seen in January 2023. Bitcoin had spent two months consolidating below $18,000. On January 3, 2023, the funding rate suddenly spiked to 50% within days, coinciding with January retail sales growth of 3%, beating the 1.9% forecast. Powell, in his January 10 speech in Sweden, reiterated the need for tighter policy to combat inflation—again contributing to a market sentiment shift.

The core theme across all these rallies is a combination of initially low leverage, reduced expectations for dovish Fed action, and robust consumer spending data. These conditions foster a cautious but potent environment for Bitcoin price breakouts. Looking forward, traders will closely watch Fed Chair Powell’s June 18 speech, retail data releases on June 17 and July 15, and the Jackson Hole Symposium beginning August 21 for potential catalysts.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.