FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin’s $1B Realized Profits Point to Late-Stage Bull Run

Bitcoin’s recent rally is facing potential headwinds, as profit-taking by investors dominates the market, according to research from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. In a blog post published May 8, the firm warned that rising realized profits—averaging \$1 billion per day—could derail the current bull market recovery. Despite positive momentum and growing institutional involvement, the tendency for investors to lock in gains could lead to a market stall or even a sharp correction.

CryptoQuant highlighted that realized profits have surged to multi-month highs as Bitcoin recently touched \$98,000. The behavior of profit-taking at these levels is reminiscent of late 2024, when BTC surpassed previous all-time highs and briefly reached \$100,000. “Even after the March-April 2025 price recovery, profit-taking remains aggressive,” noted contributor Kripto Mevsimi. While not as intense as the selling pressure seen in November–December 2024, it still signals typical late-stage bull market behavior.

The firm’s data reveals that the seven-day moving average for realized profits across Bitcoin holders is now around \$1 billion per day. Historically, this pattern—when sustained—has often preceded a local top or a sharp pullback. Similar dynamics were observed in 2021 when high profit-taking levels foreshadowed temporary market peaks. CryptoQuant suggests that while prices may continue to rise in the short term, the dominance of profit-taking adds considerable risk.

While some market analysts argue that the entry of institutions via spot Bitcoin ETFs has fundamentally shifted the investment landscape, CryptoQuant remains skeptical. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest U.S. spot BTC ETF, has seen daily net inflows for more than two consecutive weeks. However, the firm argues that institutional involvement has not altered basic investor behavior.

“Since spot ETFs launched in January 2024, the market structure has evolved, but investor psychology hasn’t,” Kripto Mevsimi concluded. Despite the influx of institutional capital, the emotional cycle of fear and greed remains deeply embedded, leaving Bitcoin susceptible to familiar volatility patterns—even in this new era of mainstream adoption.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.