FameEX Hot Topics | Analyst: Volatility Signal Still Targets $135K Bitcoin Within 100 Days

Bitcoin continues to trade above the $100,000 mark, consolidating higher following a significant drop in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which recently returned to its 30-year average of 20 after peaking at 60 earlier in 2025. The decline in volatility comes in the wake of the May 12 US-China trade agreement that introduced a 90-day pause on tariffs and a mutual reduction of duties by 115%. This development has shifted market sentiment toward a "risk-on" stance, encouraging investors to increase exposure to high-risk assets like Bitcoin and equities.

Bitcoin economist Timothy Peterson emphasized the significance of the VIX movement, stating that the index’s drop to normal levels signals a favorable climate for risk assets. “$VIX dropped substantially yesterday on news of a potential China trade deal. It is now at 'normal' levels. This will be a 'risk on' environment for the foreseeable future,” Peterson noted. The surge in risk appetite is also being supported by a softer inflation print in the United States, where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April fell to 2.3% year-over-year—its lowest level since February 2021. The reading, down from 2.4% in March and below expectations, enhances the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The convergence of these macroeconomic factors—declining volatility, easing inflation, and a temporary trade war truce—has created a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Peterson previously projected that Bitcoin could climb to $135,000 within 100 days, supported by a historically reliable model that correlates low VIX levels with increased investor confidence and capital flows into risk assets. His model has shown 95% accuracy in anticipating such shifts.

April marked one of Bitcoin’s least bullish periods in recent years, but market sentiment has since reversed dramatically. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index surged from 20 to 80, a level typically associated with strong price rallies. This jump suggests renewed spot demand is beginning to outpace available supply, echoing post-halving behavior observed in April 2024.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr added that while the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 53.3%, it remains well below the overheated territory above 80. He expressed optimism that the market may be preparing for a breakout, potentially pushing Bitcoin beyond its all-time high near $110,000.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.