FameEX Hot Topics | Analyst: Bitcoin Bulls Face Danger From Looming 2-Month Tariff Trap

Bitcoin could rally to $120,000 this month if the United States puts an end to ongoing tariff threats, according to Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal. He warned that the biggest danger for Bitcoin bulls isn’t a specific event, but rather a continuation of the current policy limbo. “The biggest threat to bulls right now is that nothing changes over the next two months, and we just stay trapped in this cycle of endless tariff ultimatums,” Hundal said. He added that U.S. policymakers may hold off on monetary easing until they see clear data on the economic fallout from Trump’s tariff agenda, risking a broader growth slowdown.

The Federal Reserve has so far adopted a cautious stance. On May 7, the rate-setting committee held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, citing rising risks tied to inflation and potential unemployment. Hundal noted that continued policy uncertainty could weigh heavily on risk assets. “If bears have their ‘I told you so’ moment, you could see Bitcoin drop back below $100,000,” he said. That psychological threshold has proven fragile before, and market sentiment remains sensitive to political and economic signals.

Earlier this year, Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 after Trump reignited tariff discussions in February. The coin stayed volatile amid a mix of trade policy announcements and pauses, only recovering above that level on May 8. Even after the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked Trump’s latest tariff push on May 28—ruling he had exceeded his authority—the former president doubled tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to 50%, keeping markets on edge.

Hundal warned that this policy instability may undermine the Federal Reserve’s ability to meet its 2% inflation target. “Six months ago, a 2% inflation target looked possible; today, it is under longer-term threat from tariffs,” he said. “The U.S. is at a macro crossroads. The Fed is walking a tightrope right now.” He believes the most bullish outcome would be a de-escalation of tariff threats, giving Bitcoin a clear runway to $120,000 by June’s end.

Bitfinex analysts echoed that sentiment, forecasting that Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs above $115,000 by July if institutional buying accelerates and U.S. job data comes in weaker than expected. A softer labor report, they argue, would support a disinflationary narrative and potentially prompt earlier interest rate cuts, boosting Bitcoin’s momentum.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.