FameEX Hot Topics | If History Repeats, Bitcoin May Soar 25% After Correction

Bitcoin’s price dipped to $103,300 as traders reduced exposure ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the forthcoming interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. This retreat follows a bearish weekly candle close, hinting at a possible trend reversal. Adding to the cautious sentiment are escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, which has prompted a broader risk-off mood across global markets.

Market analysts from Bitcoin Vector, a Swissblock-backed analytics platform, noted that the current decline isn't driven solely by macroeconomic factors. It coincides with a seasonally weak period and decelerating on-chain network growth, both of which point to waning spot demand. Additionally, over $434 million in Bitcoin futures were liquidated within 24 hours, underscoring a leverage-driven move. This indicates that traders are stepping back from aggressive positions and favoring safety amid uncertainty.

Further downward pressure came from profit-taking among so-called “mid-cycle holders” — investors who have held Bitcoin for six to twelve months. According to Glassnode, this group realized $904 million in profits on Monday alone, accounting for a striking 83% of total realized gains. Previously, long-term holders (those holding for more than 12 months) dominated profit realization, suggesting a shift in market dynamics as more reactive investors capitalize on recent highs.

Despite the recent selling, long-term investor behavior remains constructive. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that long-term holders are not engaging in significant spending, which historically aligns with bullish outcomes. Supporting this view, the MVRV Z-score indicates Bitcoin is still fundamentally undervalued, and Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) momentum remains positive. This points to strategic profit-taking rather than panic selling, mirroring past cycles where similar conditions preceded 18–25% rallies within six to eight weeks — potentially lifting Bitcoin toward $130,000 by the end of Q2.

Technically, Bitcoin appears to be nearing a short-term bottom in the $102,000 to $104,000 range, a zone marked by high liquidity and a historical order block. Bollinger Bands suggest a rebound may be near, with the middle band near $106,000 acting as dynamic resistance. A breakout and close above $106,748 could trigger a bullish mean reversion to $112,000. However, a decisive drop below $100,000 would invalidate the setup and could push the price down to $98,000.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.