FameEX Hot Topics | Analysts: These Conditions Must Be Met for BTC to Hit $112K

Bitcoin rebounded sharply as tensions between Israel and Iran began to de-escalate, helping the leading cryptocurrency reclaim its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently hovers near $106,000. However, despite this price recovery, momentum in the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio appears to be stalling, according to data from CryptoQuant. This technical indicator, often used to assess Bitcoin’s fair value relative to investor cost basis, is showing signs of a slowdown.

CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent clarified that the current stagnation in the MVRV ratio doesn’t imply an impending downtrend. Rather, it could be a sign that the market is entering the later stages of the ongoing bull cycle. Currently, the MVRV slope sits at 2.22, which is well below the historically overvalued threshold of 3.7. This suggests that there may still be room for further upside before the market overheats.

A renewed uptick in MVRV momentum would indicate that investors are opting to hold their positions longer, which typically reduces selling pressure. When combined with strong ETF inflows, this dynamic could potentially support a breakout past Bitcoin’s current peak near $112,000. Some analysts believe such a move could ultimately drive prices beyond $165,000 if market conditions align.

Despite these positive signals, signs of a market cooldown are emerging. On-chain transfer volume and spot trading activity have both declined notably. Over the weekend, the seven-day moving average of on-chain volume dropped 32% to $52 billion from a late-May high of $76 billion. Spot trading volume has also fallen to around $7.7 billion, which is significantly below previous cycle highs, signaling reduced speculative interest.

Glassnode’s latest Week Onchain report echoed these observations, stating that Bitcoin’s recent move to $111,000 lacked the spot volume surge seen during past all-time highs. As Bitcoin consolidates between $100,000 and $110,000, a key bullish confirmation would be a flip of the $108,000–$110,000 resistance into support. A rise in spot volume would reinforce investor confidence and increase the likelihood of a sustained breakout.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.