FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Gained 50% in Price When Volatility Last Hit These Lows

Traders are ramping up their bets on Bitcoin as the market enters a phase of extraordinary calm, marked by historically low volatility. While price action remains relatively subdued, the underlying sentiment points to quiet but steady accumulation. Data indicates that such periods of low volatility typically don’t last long — and often precede major directional moves. Bitcoin’s current behavior echoes previous cycles where volatility compression served as a precursor to powerful rallies.

The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV) has dropped to 40.84, slipping below the critical level of 45. According to historical data, this threshold has only been breached 21 times in the past 149 weeks, dating back to September 2022. When this has occurred, it typically signaled either a local price bottom or the beginning of an accumulation phase. For example, in September 2023, when BVIV dipped similarly low, Bitcoin surged nearly 50%, climbing from $26,000. This pattern offers a compelling case that history could repeat itself.

Since late 2022, every weekly close below the 45 mark on BVIV has aligned with a period of either sideways consolidation or strong bullish reversals. This consistent correlation adds weight to the argument that Bitcoin is once again positioning for an upward breakout. Importantly, these moves are not necessarily triggered by hype but often reflect a rebalancing of supply and demand. As volatility tightens, it suggests that market participants are preparing for a significant repricing event.

Even more striking is the nature of Bitcoin’s volatility decline in the face of bullish milestones. Despite reaching new all-time highs in May 2025, the 30-day realized volatility remains compressed, now sitting in the 10th percentile of the past 10 years. Analytics firm Ecoinometrics interprets this as a structural shift — indicating that Bitcoin may be evolving into a more stable, institutional-grade asset. For large capital allocators, a high-return asset with declining volatility is increasingly attractive.

Glassnode data also reveals an encouraging accumulation trend. Bitcoin is being steadily acquired in the $110,000–$117,000 range, forming a staircase-like cost basis structure — a bullish signal of organized, conviction-based buying. Additionally, short-term holder supply has increased by 227,000 BTC, suggesting that fresh demand continues to enter the market or long-term investors are strategically rotating their holdings. All signs point toward a market quietly building toward its next major move.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.