FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin bull run entering ‘late’ phase — is the top near?

Bitcoin’s onchain data and historical market cycle analysis suggest that the current bull phase may be nearing its conclusion. On Thursday, the cryptocurrency faced resistance at the $114,000 level, highlighting weakening bullish momentum. Several onchain indicators now show patterns typical of market stages that precede a cycle top, adding weight to concerns that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory is running out of steam.

Over the past three years, Bitcoin has rallied impressively, climbing nearly 700% from a cycle low of $15,500 in November 2022 to an all-time high of $124,500 just last week. This performance mirrors previous market cycles, where peak prices were typically reached two to three months beyond the current timing. Market intelligence platform Glassnode emphasized this comparison in its latest Week On-chain report, noting that in both the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, the final highs arrived slightly later relative to today’s point in the cycle.

As of August 21, about 91% of all Bitcoin supply was in profit. Furthermore, BTC has remained above the +1 standard deviation profit band for more than 273 consecutive days in this cycle, making it the second-longest streak on record. The only longer period occurred during the 2015–2018 cycle, lasting 335 days. This historical context indicates that the present cycle has already delivered a comparable duration to those that preceded major market tops, strengthening the argument that Bitcoin may be entering its late stage.

Onchain activity also shows that long-term holders (LTHs)—investors who keep their coins for at least 155 days—have realized higher levels of profit during this cycle than in previous ones. By measuring cumulative profits from the first breakout to new all-time highs until the ultimate cycle peak, Glassnode concluded that the scale of profit-taking resembles the euphoric phases of earlier bull markets. Such intense selling pressure from seasoned holders adds another layer of evidence that the current bull cycle could be drawing to a close.

Supporting this view, popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that if Bitcoin’s bull market peaks align with historical halving cycles, the final top could form around mid-September to mid-October 2025. Despite a strong bounce from $112,000 support on Wednesday, Bitcoin was once again rejected at $114,000, a rejection that reinforces the potential for further downside in the near term.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.