FameEX Hot Topics | Rising Bitcoin Spot Trading Activity Signals Potential Breakout Toward $119K

Bitcoin’s spot market is flashing early signs of a potential recovery rally, with onchain data pointing to stronger buyer conviction. Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD), which highlights key price levels where significant supply has changed hands, shows a sharp divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum. While Ether’s spot flows remain thin and scattered, Bitcoin’s spot activity appears much denser, with transactions clustering more tightly around recent ranges. This accumulation pattern has historically offered stronger price support than momentum driven by futures markets.

Further evidence of redistribution comes from exchange flows. This structural adjustment may be setting the stage for renewed upside. Long-term holder (LTH) behavior adds nuance to the picture: profit-taking has accelerated modestly in recent weeks, with the 14-day SMA ticking higher. However, spending levels remain comfortably within cycle norms and far below the intense distribution observed during the October–November 2024 period, pointing to measured activity rather than aggressive selling.

Bitcoin also showed resilience this week after briefly dipping to $107,300 on Monday. That level closely matches BTC’s short-term realized price, reinforcing its potential as local support. From there, the asset rebounded sharply, reclaiming momentum by breaking above Monday’s $109,900 high during Tuesday’s New York session. This move followed two weeks of corrective price action and highlighted renewed buying interest after a period of consolidation.

Lower time frame signals now support the bullish case. On the 15-minute and one-hour charts, Bitcoin has registered a break of bearish structure, while the four-hour relative strength index (RSI) has climbed back above the neutral 50 line. These shifts suggest growing confidence among traders and strengthen the likelihood of near-term continuation.

For the recovery to gather pace, Bitcoin must decisively clear the resistance zone between $112,500 and $113,650. A daily close above $113,650 would confirm a structural bullish reversal, invalidating the descending trendline that has capped price action over the past two weeks. Success could unlock liquidity targets at $116,300, $117,500, and potentially $119,500. However, September’s historically bearish seasonality remains a risk; failure to hold above $113,650 could expose BTC to downside pressure, with targets near $105,000 to $100,000.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.