FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin 'Too Expensive' for Retail, Risks Ending Bull Cycle

Bitcoin's escalating price is rendering it increasingly inaccessible to average retail investors, a trend that could derail expectations for an extended crypto market cycle, warns 10x Research. The crypto intelligence firm highlights how diminishing returns are signaling a shift, potentially preventing the current bull run from surpassing the conventional four-year halving framework that has defined past cycles.

In its Tuesday report, 10x Research emphasized that Bitcoin's costliness is curbing sustained retail participation, historically a cornerstone of market momentum. This inaccessibility raises serious doubts about the bull market's longevity. The firm pointed to “diminishing returns” as a critical indicator, noting that although many interpret this as a sign of asset maturity, it fundamentally challenges the reliability of the Bitcoin cycle theory that enthusiasts often invoke to predict prolonged uptrends.

Skepticism abounds regarding the validity of extrapolating from merely four prior market cycles, given Bitcoin's brief 16-year existence. 10x Research described attempts to derive “firm statistical conclusions” from such limited data as “highly questionable.” The report cautioned against overconfidence in historical patterns, arguing that the asset's youth undermines bold assertions of cycle extension, especially amid current barriers to broad investor entry.

Contrasting with optimistic models like the stock-to-flow projection of $1 million per Bitcoin, 10x Research forecasts a more restrained cycle peak at $125,000 by year's end. This projection stems from the same analytical approach that accurately pinpointed the October 2022 bear market bottom, bolstering the firm's credibility. As retail sidelining intensifies, this tempered outlook underscores the risks of assuming unchecked growth in an evolving market landscape.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.