FameEX Hot Topics | JPMorgan: Bitcoin Looks Undervalued vs. Gold, Fair Value at $170K

JPMorgan analysts released a bullish Bitcoin outlook on Wednesday, forecasting “significant upside” in the coming months. They contend BTC is undervalued relative to gold when volatility is factored in. Gold’s October rally to all-time highs dramatically increased its price swings, rendering the metal riskier. The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has dropped to 1.8, indicating Bitcoin requires 1.8 times the risk capital of gold yet offers comparable appeal to investors seeking exposure.

Applying this ratio mechanically, JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap should expand by nearly 67% to align with gold’s risk profile, implying a theoretical price near $170,000. The bank views this as a straightforward calculation signaling robust gains over the next 6–12 months. This optimistic target arrives as Bitcoin tumbled below $100,000 on Tuesday—the first breach of this key psychological level in four months—prompting widespread downward revisions among analysts and investment firms.

Pessimism now dominates short-term forecasts, with many doubting a return to $125,000 by year-end. Macroeconomic pressures, including tariff threats and the historic October 10 crash—the largest single-day liquidation event in crypto—have eroded confidence. Galaxy Research cut its 2025 Bitcoin projection from $185,000 to $120,000 on Wednesday, blaming whale sales of 400,000 BTC last month, capital shifting to alternative narratives, and evolving market structures that favor stability over explosive growth.

Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, described Bitcoin entering a “maturity era” driven by institutional adoption, passive inflows, and diminished volatility. Spot ETFs now absorb substantial liquidity, muting the rapid surges seen in prior cycles. Thorn stressed that structural maturation means future appreciation will unfold gradually, contrasting sharply with JPMorgan’s volatility-based $170,000 thesis. Investors thus confront dueling narratives: a risk-adjusted model suggesting undervaluation versus a maturing ecosystem likely to deliver measured, institution-led gains through 2026.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.