FameEX Hot Topics | Analyst: $200K Bitcoin Target in Wave 3 as Sell Pressure Vanishes

Analysts are increasingly confident that Bitcoin is on the cusp of its Elliott Wave III expansion, a phase historically associated with explosive price gains. Market veteran Gert van Lagen points to the cryptocurrency’s latest rebound from its 40-week simple moving average as evidence that the corrective Wave II is nearing completion. If the pattern holds true to form, van Lagen projects Bitcoin could surge into the $200,000–$240,000 range over the coming months, marking the next leg of its long-term parabolic advance.

Van Lagen’s proprietary “step-like” Elliott Wave framework highlights how Bitcoin repeatedly consolidates above key moving averages before launching into sharp rallies. Identical setups in 2019 and 2023 preceded multi-fold price increases, reinforcing the idea that the current tight range is merely a springboard. Crypto trader Jelle adds that Bitcoin remains pinned below the midpoint of its multi-year ascending channel; a decisive break above this level could propel the price toward the channel’s upper boundary near $350,000, underscoring the magnitude of upside potential.

Beyond technical patterns, macroeconomic researcher Sminston With argues that broader economic cycles are aligning in Bitcoin’s favor. The U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index has languished below the 50 contraction threshold for nearly three years—the longest downturn since 1948. History shows such prolonged weakness is typically followed by vigorous “mean-reversion” rebounds that flood capital back into risk assets. As investor confidence returns, Bitcoin’s status as a high-beta, speculative instrument positions it to capture disproportionate gains in the impending risk-on environment.

Despite the bullish macro and long-term technical backdrop, near-term price action remains tentative. On Tuesday, Bitcoin filled the weekend CME futures gap and is now probing for acceptance above $105,000. Glassnode data reveal a sharp pullback in futures open interest since the October 10 liquidation cascade, with average order sizes contracting as whale participation wanes and retail traders dominate. This deleveraging has temporarily muted volatility but also cleared excessive leverage that previously capped upside momentum.

On-chain analytics from Hyblock Capital offer a silver lining: dense pockets of long liquidations near $100,000 on November 4 and again last Friday were quickly followed by modest recoveries, illustrating localized mean reversion. Should the latest CME gap liquidation zone spark a similar reflexive bounce, Bitcoin could cement a higher pivot above $105,000. Such a development would not only validate short-term bullish reversal patterns but also reinforce the broader Wave III narrative, setting the stage for the multi-month ascent toward $200,000 and beyond.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.