FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Technicals Signal $75K Base

Bitcoin is flashing mixed signals: short-term charts look grim, yet whales and top analysts refuse to flinch. Onchain data shows large holders have been stacking BTC aggressively over the past month, undeterred by the 30% plunge from the $126,300 all-time high. Wall Street heavyweights still expect new record highs before 2025 closes, with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan labeling the sell-off “a great buying opportunity for long-term investors.”

Technically, however, Bitcoin just suffered a major breakdown. For the first time since late 2022, price has fallen below the MVRV Extreme Deviation Mean band “fair value” line that has anchored healthy bull runs since 2023. Historically, losing this level has ushered in extended periods of weakness, and last week’s breach fits that exact pattern.

If history rhymes, the next stop is the –0.5σ band (currently around $75,700), representing another 18% downside from today’s levels. Should that support crumble, the -1σ band near $52,800—last visited during the 2022 bear market—comes into play, echoing the brutal corrections of 2018 and 2021.

The sharp retreat has finally turned spot Bitcoin ETF investors red for the first time this cycle, fueling widespread fear. Yet the contrast is striking: while retail panics and technicals warn of deeper pain, whales continue to load up and leading analysts maintain six-figure year-end targets. The market is split between those seeing an impending capitulation toward $75,000 or lower and those convinced the long-term bull market remains firmly on track. For now, whale accumulation and institutional optimism stand as the strongest counterweight to the bearish technical picture.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.