FameEX Hot Topics | Analysts：Bitcoin data confirms $80K as the bottom, BTC bulls are back

Bitcoin analysts are increasingly confident that the recent drop to $80,000 represents the cycle bottom, with one prominent voice forecasting a 91% probability of a rally back to $118,000. The bullish case rests on a rare capitulation-volume pattern that has appeared only 11 times in Bitcoin’s history. According to this layered rule-of-three model on weekly candles, three consecutive high-volume red candles have reliably preceded major reversals. In eight of those eleven instances, the pattern launched a new bullish leg that ultimately produced fresh all-time highs, while only one case led to sustained downside—an unmistakable statistical outlier. The model also assigns a 99% chance of reaching at least $112,000 and a 75% likelihood that the broader bull market remains intact.

Bitcoin analyst Astronomer emphasized that extreme bearish sentiment is emerging at exactly the wrong moment. Calls to “wait for trend confirmation” or declarations that the bull cycle is over mirror classic crowd behavior at market lows. Selling or sitting on the sidelines now risks missing the explosive move higher, forcing late entrants to chase local tops. Supporting signals include the BTC Network Value to Transactions (NVT) golden cross falling to -1.6, a level historically associated with undervaluation and imminent mean reversion. However, traders like Darkfost cautioned that leverage remains dangerous in the current choppy environment.

Arthur Hayes reinforced the $80,000–$85,000 floor thesis by focusing on macroeconomic liquidity rather than short-term price action. He predicts the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening cycle is nearing its end, while U.S. bank lending is already accelerating. This combination should create a “rising-tide” effect across risk assets, including crypto. “We chop below $90K, maybe a stab into the low $80Ks, but $80K holds,” Hayes stated, dismissing sentiment-driven fears in favor of liquidity-driven gains.

Onchain metrics align with the bullish narrative. CryptoQuant data revealed that Bitcoin just recorded its largest net realized loss since the 2022 FTX collapse, yet the market absorbed the capitulation almost instantly and flipped positive. Such rapid recovery after heavy forced selling suggests the floating supply of weak hands has been largely cleared out. As long as traditional markets remain stable, these dynamics strongly support Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $80,000–$85,000 zone and set the stage for the next major leg higher.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.