FameEX Hot Topics | BTC Price Now 98% Correlated with 2022 Crash Pattern

Fresh analysis from network economist Timothy Peterson reveals Bitcoin is following the 2022 bear market playbook with chilling precision. Despite earlier hopes that 2025 would deliver the bull run’s explosive phase, BTC has instead shed 36% from its all-time high, entering a phase that now mirrors the brutal second half of 2022.

Peterson’s data shows daily correlation at 80% and monthly correlation soaring to 98%. “2H2025 Bitcoin is the same as 2H2022 Bitcoin,” he warned on X Saturday. Historically, a “red” November has always been followed by another down December—though typically with milder losses—raising the risk of continued pain before any meaningful reversal.

Yet the broader risk-asset picture is starting to brighten. While crypto bled harder than stocks during November’s drawdown, macro sentiment appears to be shifting. According to Bloomberg and JPMorgan figures highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, U.S. equity funds have absorbed a staggering $900 billion in fresh capital since November 2024—$450 billion in the past five months alone. By comparison, all other asset classes combined attracted just $100 billion.

That massive rotation into equities signals renewed risk-on appetite and raises hopes for a classic year-end “Santa rally” across correlated assets, including crypto. Early signs are already emerging: the latest flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggest institutional selling pressure may have peaked. If equity inflows continue and macro catalysts align, the 98% bear-market correlation could finally break, paving the way for a sharp reversal before 2025 ends.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.