FameEX Hot Topics | Kevin O’Leary: No December Fed Rate Cut Coming, But Bitcoin Doesn’t Care

Kevin O’Leary, the outspoken Shark Tank investor dubbed “Mr. Wonderful,” has thrown a wrench into the crypto community’s December narrative. While most traders are betting heavily on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this month—currently priced at an overwhelming 89.2% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool—O’Leary insists it simply won’t happen. More importantly, he argues that even if the Fed disappoints the market and holds rates steady, Bitcoin will shrug it off entirely. “I don’t actually think the Fed’s gonna cut in December,” he said Tuesday, “and it’s not gonna make a difference to Bitcoin.”

O’Leary’s skepticism stems from clear economic headwinds that he believes outweigh the dovish hopes dominating trading floors. Persistent inflation—hitting 3% year-over-year in September, the highest reading since January—remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. Emerging tariffs are simultaneously driving up input costs across industries, creating fresh price pressures. “There’s a lot of inflation in the system,” O’Leary observed, reminding listeners that the central bank’s dual mandate forces it to balance full employment against price stability. In his view, these factors make further easing in December unlikely, regardless of recent dovish whispers from Fed officials.

Despite the conventional wisdom that lower rates act as rocket fuel for risk assets like cryptocurrencies, O’Leary says he has structured his own portfolio without assuming any additional cuts are coming. Bitcoin’s resilience, he contends, now operates independently of traditional monetary policy triggers. “It’s found a level for now,” he explained, predicting the price will trade in a tight band, drifting no more than 5% in either direction absent a major catalyst. While he doesn’t foresee explosive upside in the immediate term, he is equally unconcerned about significant downside, even if the Fed surprises markets with a hawkish pause.

The past few weeks have illustrated just how fragile consensus can be. On November 19, the probability of a December cut cratered to 33% from roughly 67% earlier in the month. A mere two days later, remarks from New York Fed President John Williams hinting at near-term easing sent the odds soaring again to nearly 70%. Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal described the reversal as a “massive increase” driven almost entirely by those comments. After the Fed already delivered cuts in September and November, most participants had assumed the easing cycle would roll smoothly into the year-end. O’Leary’s calm insistence that Bitcoin will remain unfazed—no matter which way the Fed ultimately leans.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.