FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Climbs to $109.7K as Traders Remain Skeptical

Bitcoin surged above $109,000 on Wednesday, rebounding after briefly testing the $105,200 support level earlier in the day. This movement came in response to notable macroeconomic developments, including expanding monetary policies in Europe and signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market. Despite nearing its all-time high—currently just 2% below—many institutional and professional traders remain hesitant, with on-chain and derivative data indicating caution rather than confidence.

One key indicator of market sentiment, the Bitcoin futures premium, has yet to reflect a strongly bullish outlook. Although it rose slightly from 4% on Monday to just under 5%, it remains below the neutral threshold that typically signals market optimism. This slow increase continues a trend that began on June 11, the last time Bitcoin attempted to breach the $110,000 level. The subdued sentiment suggests that despite recent price action, futures traders are not yet convinced of a solid breakout supported by deep institutional interest.

A combination of factors appears to be driving the rally. Among them is the eurozone’s April M2 money supply data, which showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase—a record high. This expansion, alongside continued U.S. monetary base growth, suggests rising inflationary pressures that may be steering capital toward alternative assets like Bitcoin. At the same time, recent ADP data revealed a 33,000 job decline in U.S. private payrolls for June, highlighting potential weaknesses in the labor market and further fueling interest in non-traditional hedges.

Nonetheless, macroeconomic risks continue to weigh heavily on sentiment. Rising global trade tensions have introduced additional uncertainty. The U.S. has threatened to impose tariffs exceeding 30% on Japanese imports if no trade agreement is finalized by July 9. Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing for tough negotiations in Washington, with internal divisions emerging over whether to reduce its existing 10% reciprocal tariff. These developments contribute to a cautious atmosphere among global investors.

In the options market, the 25% delta skew—used to assess directional bias—remains flat at 0%. A reading above 6% would typically signal expectations of downside risk. Its current neutral position reflects a market unsure of its next move. Adding to this indecision are Tuesday’s $342 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, reinforcing the view that, despite the price rebound, uncertainty continues to dominate crypto investor behavior.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.