FameEX Hot Topics | Analysts: What Must Happen for BTC to Break $112K

Bitcoin has staged a sharp rebound as tensions between Israel and Iran ease, helping the top cryptocurrency climb back above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), now positioned around $106,000. This price recovery marks a notable shift in sentiment, although momentum indicators suggest caution. According to data from CryptoQuant, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio—a key on-chain metric used to assess whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued—appears to be stalling, pointing to a potential pause in investor enthusiasm.

CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent noted that the slowing MVRV momentum doesn’t necessarily point to an imminent price drop. Instead, it could reflect a transition into the later stages of the current bull market. The MVRV slope currently reads 2.22, comfortably below the overheated zone of 3.7 historically linked with market tops. This leaves room for further upside without entering bubble territory, suggesting that the bull run may still have fuel left in the tank.

If the MVRV ratio picks up again, it may indicate that investors are increasingly holding their positions rather than selling, which helps reduce market selling pressure. Coupled with consistent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, this could set the stage for a breakout beyond Bitcoin’s local high near $112,000. Bullish analysts even project a potential rally toward the $165,000 mark if momentum and inflows continue to align in Bitcoin’s favor.

However, the broader market shows signs of cooling. Key indicators like on-chain transfer volume and spot market trading have seen notable declines. Over the past weekend, the seven-day moving average of on-chain volume fell by 32% to $52 billion, down from a $76 billion high in late May. Meanwhile, current spot volume stands at just $7.7 billion, well below historical peaks, reflecting a decline in short-term speculative activity.

Glassnode’s Week Onchain report highlighted this trend, emphasizing that the recent push to $111,000 was not accompanied by a spike in spot volume—unlike earlier 2024 rallies. With Bitcoin ranging between $100,000 and $110,000, turning the $108,000–$110,000 resistance into solid support and a recovery in spot volume would be key signs of renewed investor conviction.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.