FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin 'Unaffordable' for Retail, Could Halt Bull Market

Bitcoin's skyrocketing price is making it out of reach for average retail investors, threatening the anticipated extension of the current crypto market cycle, according to 10x Research. The intelligence firm warns that diminishing returns indicate a pivotal change, which could halt the bull run from exceeding the established four-year halving cycle that has characterized previous market phases. This growing inaccessibility risks undermining the broad participation needed to sustain prolonged upward momentum.

In its detailed Tuesday report, 10x Research stressed that Bitcoin's high costs are suppressing ongoing retail involvement, a factor long essential to driving market rallies. Such barriers cast significant doubt on the bull market's endurance. The firm identified “diminishing returns” as a key warning sign, explaining that while some regard this as evidence of maturity, it actually questions the core Bitcoin cycle theory frequently cited by proponents to justify expectations of extended gains.

Given Bitcoin's mere 16-year history encompassing only four prior cycles, 10x Research deems it “highly questionable” to extract robust statistical insights from this scant dataset. The report urges restraint in relying too heavily on past patterns, asserting that the asset's relative youth invalidates sweeping claims of cycle prolongation, particularly when everyday investors face mounting obstacles to entry.

In stark contrast to bullish forecasts like the stock-to-flow model predicting a $1 million Bitcoin, 10x Research anticipates a modest cycle peak of $125,000 by the end of the year. This forecast employs the identical methodology that successfully predicted the October 2022 bear market low, enhancing the firm's analytical reputation. With retail investors increasingly marginalized, this cautious projection highlights the dangers of presuming uninterrupted expansion in a maturing and exclusionary market environment.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.