FameEX Hot Topics | JPMorgan Report: Bitcoin Undervalued Relative to Gold, Targets $170K

JPMorgan analysts issued a bullish Bitcoin forecast on Wednesday, predicting “significant upside” over the coming months. They argue BTC is undervalued compared to gold when adjusted for volatility. Gold’s October surge to record highs sharply increased its swings, elevating risk. The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio now stands at 1.8, meaning Bitcoin demands 1.8 times the risk capital of gold while appearing more attractive to investors seeking exposure.

Using this ratio, JPMorgan mechanically estimates Bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap should rise nearly 67% to match gold’s risk profile, implying a theoretical price near $170,000. The bank sees this as evidence of strong gains over the next 6–12 months. The upbeat target contrasts with Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 on Tuesday—its first breach of this psychological level in four months—triggering widespread downward revisions from analysts and firms.

Short-term pessimism prevails, with many doubting a return to $125,000 by year-end. Macro headwinds like tariffs and the October 10 crash—the largest 24-hour liquidation in crypto history—have dented confidence. Galaxy Research slashed its 2025 Bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000 on Wednesday, citing whale sales of 400,000 BTC in October, capital rotating to rival narratives, and a shift toward stable, mature market dynamics.

Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, said Bitcoin has entered a “maturity era” dominated by institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility. Spot ETFs now soak up liquidity, slowing the explosive rallies of past cycles. Thorn noted structural changes will moderate future gains. JPMorgan’s volatility-driven $170,000 thesis thus clashes with a maturing market poised for gradual, institution-led appreciation through 2026.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.