FameEX Hot Topics | Crypto Finds a Bullish Catalyst in Reported US Senate to end Shutdown Agreement

As a report from Politico indicates the US Senate has agreed on a three-part budget deal to conclude the record 40-day government shutdown. The pending legislation is reported to have comfortably cleared the critical 60-vote threshold, a significant achievement for Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune after 15 previous attempts to gain Democratic backing. Although a final official vote is still pending to ratify the agreement, this development strongly signals that the protracted political stalemate is finally nearing its end.

The extended shutdown has been a substantial anchor on digital asset prices, with the pervasive uncertainty preventing Bitcoin and the broader crypto market from mounting any meaningful rebound. This suppressing effect is clearly visible in recent price action. Data from CoinGecko reveals that after an initial rally to $126,080 in early October, Bitcoin's momentum faltered, subsequently falling over 17% to trade around $104,370. The political gridlock created a risk-off environment that overwhelmed other market factors, leaving investors hesitant to commit capital.

For crypto investors seeking optimism, historical precedent provides a powerful bullish analogue. The resolution of the previous government shutdown in late January 2019 preceded one of Bitcoin's most impressive rallies. Following the end of that 35-day impasse, Bitcoin’s price exploded, embarking on a monumental 266% ascent over the next five months, soaring from $3,550 to $13,000. This historical pattern suggests that the removal of such a major macroeconomic headwind can act as a powerful catalyst, unleashing pent-up demand and revitalizing market sentiment.

This optimistic outlook is now being quantified in real-time by prediction markets, which are increasingly betting on an imminent resolution. On the platform Polymarket, traders are assigning a 54% probability that the shutdown will be lifted between Tuesday and Friday of this week. A competing platform, Kalshi, echoes this sentiment, with its highest odds pointing to a resolution on Friday, which would be the 44th day of the shutdown. Market-based forecasting indicates that a significant downward pressure on the crypto market may soon be lifted, potentially opening the door for a sustained relief rally.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.