FameEX Hot Topics | Analyst: Bitcoin Bulls Face Danger From Looming 2-Month Tariff Trap

Bitcoin could surge to $120,000 this month if the United States moves to end ongoing tariff threats, according to Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal. He emphasized that the most significant risk for Bitcoin bulls isn’t any particular event, but the persistence of uncertainty. “The biggest threat to bulls right now is that nothing changes over the next two months, and we just stay trapped in this cycle of endless tariff ultimatums,” Hundal said. He warned that U.S. policymakers may delay monetary easing until there is concrete data on the economic damage from Trump’s tariff plans, potentially triggering a broader economic slowdown.

The Federal Reserve remains cautious. On May 7, it kept interest rates steady between 4.25% and 4.50%, citing the risks of rising inflation and possible unemployment. Hundal suggested that if policy clarity fails to emerge, it could place significant pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. “If bears have their ‘I told you so’ moment, you could see Bitcoin drop back below $100,000,” he warned, adding that market sentiment is highly reactive to ongoing political and economic developments.

Bitcoin’s price action has already been closely tied to tariff-related headlines. When Trump revived tariff discussions in February, Bitcoin fell below $100,000 and experienced heightened volatility. The market only recovered on May 8, briefly holding above that level. Even though the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked Trump’s latest tariff move on May 28—ruling he overstepped his authority—the former president responded by doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, prolonging market unease.

Hundal argued that this policy turbulence is undermining the Federal Reserve’s credibility in meeting its 2% inflation target. “Six months ago, a 2% inflation target looked possible; today, it is under longer-term threat from tariffs,” he said. He noted that the Fed is now walking a delicate line amid conflicting macroeconomic pressures. A meaningful reduction in tariff threats, he added, could open the door for Bitcoin to reach $120,000 by the end of June.

Bitfinex analysts shared a similar view, forecasting Bitcoin could reach all-time highs above $115,000 by July. They noted that weaker U.S. labor data might accelerate institutional buying and increase expectations for rate cuts, boosting Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.