FameEX Hot Topics | The Last Time Bitcoin Volatility Was This Low, Price Jumped 50%

Traders are placing significant bets on Bitcoin, as the current period of calm markets and record-low volatility hides the bull's intentions. Recent price movements indicate a phase of quiet accumulation, but historical data suggests that these low-volatility phases are usually short-lived. This suggests that Bitcoin's current consolidation could precede a major price move.

The 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) for Bitcoin has recently dropped to 40.84, falling below the key threshold of 45. This level has only been breached 21 times in the past 149 weeks, since September 2022. Historically, such low volatility levels have been followed by either accumulation phases or local price bottoms, typically leading to strong upward movements. Notably, in September 2023, Bitcoin’s price surged nearly 50% from $26,000 after BVIV dropped to similar lows.

Every time the BVIV has closed below 45 since late 2022, it has coincided with periods of price consolidation or significant bullish reversals. This pattern reinforces the idea that the current compression in volatility could be setting the stage for another breakout if past trends hold. As volatility decreases, it signals that the market might be building momentum for an upcoming price surge.

Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be evolving. Despite the cryptocurrency hitting new all-time highs in May 2025, the 30-day realized volatility has continued to compress, now sitting in the 10th percentile of the past decade. This suggests that Bitcoin might be maturing into an asset class that can deliver returns with less volatility, a feature that could attract more institutional investors looking to manage volatility exposure.

Data from Glassnode and Ecoinometrics further supports this theory. The $110,000–$117,000 price range is gradually filling in, with Bitcoin being accumulated on both the higher and lower ends of the spectrum. This creates a staircase-like cost basis distribution, indicating organized accumulation rather than emotional trading. Additionally, short-term holder (STH) supply has risen by 227,000 BTC, reflecting new demand entering the market, or long-term holders rotating some of their positions. This accumulation suggests that the stage is set for Bitcoin’s next significant price move.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.