FameEX Hot Topics | Has Bitcoin’s bull cycle reached its closing phase?

Bitcoin’s onchain metrics and historical market cycle analysis indicate that the current bull phase may be approaching its final stage. On Thursday, the cryptocurrency struggled to reclaim the $114,000 mark, as a range of indicators signaled weakening momentum. Analysts note that this type of setup is often seen in the latter stages of a cycle, where bullish strength fades and profit-taking begins to dominate. The recent rejection at $114,000, despite a strong bounce from $112,000 support, underscores the market’s current fragility.

Over the last three years, Bitcoin has delivered extraordinary gains, surging nearly 700% from a cycle low of $15,500 in November 2022 to reach an all-time high of $124,500 just last week. According to market intelligence firm Glassnode, this rally resembles prior cycles, where final peaks were typically registered two to three months beyond the current stage. In its Week On-chain report, Glassnode observed that both the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles reached all-time highs slightly later than where Bitcoin currently stands, suggesting a limited window before the market potentially tops out.

As of August 21, about 91% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was in profit. Additionally, BTC has remained above the +1 standard deviation profit band for more than 273 days in this cycle, the second-longest streak in history after the 2015–2018 run, which lasted 335 days. This extended profitability phase reflects a maturity similar to past late-stage cycles and raises the likelihood that the current market is nearing exhaustion. Sustained profitability over such a long period has historically coincided with the formation of cycle tops.

Glassnode further analyzed long-term holders (LTHs), defined as investors who hold Bitcoin for at least 155 days, and found that they have realized greater cumulative profits this cycle than in earlier ones. Measuring profits from the breakout to new highs until the ultimate cycle peak revealed levels of sell-side pressure consistent with euphoric phases of past markets. The firm cautioned that this heightened profit realization by LTHs mirrors conditions that previously preceded sharp corrections, reinforcing the thesis that Bitcoin’s bull cycle is entering its late phase.

Popular analyst Rekt Capital added that, if Bitcoin peaks in line with historical halving cycles, the final high may occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025. Until then, market behavior is likely to remain volatile, with strong resistance near $114,000 and support anchored at $112,000. These dynamics point to a market that is no longer in early expansion but instead confronting the same challenges that have historically defined cycle climaxes.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.