FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Spot Market Activity Climbs, Indicating Possible Move to $119,000

Bitcoin’s spot market is showing encouraging signs of recovery, with onchain indicators hinting at a potential rally ahead. Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD), which maps price levels of significant accumulation or distribution, highlights a clear divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum. While Ethereum’s spot flows remain fragmented and relatively thin, Bitcoin’s flows appear far more concentrated, suggesting strong conviction among buyers. Historically, such density in spot activity has been a more reliable source of durable support compared with leverage-driven futures momentum.

Exchange activity further underscores this structural shift. At the same time, long-term holders have modestly increased their profit-taking. The 14-day SMA of LTH spending has trended higher in recent weeks but remains far below the heavy distribution seen in late 2024, implying controlled activity rather than a major sell-off.

Price action has also reflected resilience. After dipping to $107,300 on Monday, Bitcoin quickly rebounded from this level, which aligns closely with its short-term realized price. The bounce carried BTC through Monday’s $109,900 high during Tuesday’s New York trading hours, signaling renewed momentum after two weeks of corrective downside pressure.

Technical signals are now aligning with this rebound. On lower time frames, including the 15-minute and one-hour charts, Bitcoin has broken above bearish structures, while the four-hour relative strength index (RSI) has reclaimed the 50 level. These developments suggest building bullish momentum and improve the case for continued upside in the near term.

For confirmation, Bitcoin must push through resistance between $112,500 and $113,650. A daily close above $113,650 would mark a bullish break of structure on the higher time frame, invalidating the descending trendline that has limited gains for two weeks. This breakout could pave the way toward liquidity targets at $116,300, $117,500, and $119,500. However, September’s bearish seasonality remains a cautionary factor—failure to break higher could leave BTC vulnerable to declines, with downside risks extending toward $105,000 and even $100,000.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.