FameEX Hot Topics | U.S. Jobs Revision Rattles Bitcoin: Is a Bigger Move Coming?

The current U.S. macroeconomic backdrop bears a strong resemblance to the early 1990s, when Federal Reserve rate cuts sparked a dramatic rebound across financial markets. During that era, equities surged by more than 30% following a steep recession, as easier monetary conditions restored confidence. Today, with labor market weakness becoming more visible and inflation still elevated, investors are weighing whether a similar shift could now fuel another rally—this time extending to Bitcoin.

Signs of strain are already emerging in both equities and crypto. Bitcoin slipped below $111,000 in tandem with a U.S. stock market decline after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued a historic payroll revision. The agency subtracted 911,000 jobs from prior data—the largest downward adjustment on record—comprising 880,000 fewer private-sector positions and 31,000 fewer in government payrolls. The revision pushed unemployment up to 4.3%, while August job creation came in at just 22,000 compared to expectations of 75,000. These disappointing figures highlight mounting recession risks, particularly as core PCE inflation remains stubbornly high at 2.9%.

Bond markets have quickly priced in the likelihood of Fed intervention. Traders now assign a 92% probability that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with at least two further cuts anticipated before the end of 2025. Analysts such as The Kobeissi Letter argue that policymakers will be compelled to ease despite “hot inflation” because of the fragile labor market—a situation reminiscent of the early 1990s, when rate reductions revived economic growth and financial assets rebounded sharply. If history repeats, holders of risk assets, including Bitcoin, could once again reap substantial gains.

Safe-haven markets have already moved in anticipation. Gold has surged nearly 40% in 2025 as traders positioned early for labor market weakness. Bitcoin has climbed over 20% during the same period, and its historically lagging correlation with gold suggests further upside potential. Technical signals are supportive as well. Bitcoin recently rebounded from the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern, pointing to renewed bullish momentum. A move toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension places a potential upside target near $129,000, representing a 12–15% advance from current levels.

Importantly, Bitcoin continues to hold above its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), now near $108,500, confirming strong structural support. A breakout above the $115,000–$116,000 resistance range could accelerate momentum and usher in new all-time highs, marking the next major leg of Bitcoin’s bull cycle. If parallels with the 1990s hold true, the combination of Federal Reserve easing, persistent inflation, and rising institutional demand could propel Bitcoin even higher in the months ahead.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.