FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin Scarcity to Intensify as Fidelity Predicts 8.3M Coins Locked Up

A new report from financial services titan Fidelity presents a compelling long-term thesis for Bitcoin, forecasting that a massive portion of its supply will be effectively removed from circulation. The analysis projects that by the close of 2025, two key groups—long-term holders and publicly-listed corporations—will collectively hold over six million BTC. This represents more than 28% of the absolute maximum supply of 21 million coins that will ever exist. Such a significant locking away of supply is anticipated to create a substantially tighter market, potentially acting as a powerful catalyst for future price appreciation by fundamentally constricting available supply against growing demand.

Fidelity’s methodology for identifying this "illiquid supply" was rigorously defined. The firm pinpointed wallets that have consistently accumulated, meaning their balance has increased each quarter or at least 90% of the time over the past four years. The first group, deemed "long-term holders," consists of steadfast investors who have not moved their Bitcoin from their wallets in at least seven years. Remarkably, the collective supply held by this cohort has not seen a decrease since 2016. The second group is composed of publicly-traded companies with corporate treasuries holding at least 1,000 BTC. According to data from Bitbo, 105 such companies now exist, collectively holding over 969,000 BTC, or 4.61% of the total supply.

Extending its forecast, Fidelity makes an even more striking prediction for the next decade. The firm estimates that a total of 8.3 million BTC could become illiquid by the second quarter of 2032. This projection was arrived at by assuming the group of wallets holding BTC for at least seven years will continue to grow their holdings at the same historical rate observed over the past ten years. Notably, this conservative figure does not even factor in additional supply shortages that would be created by new public companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, suggesting the actual illiquid supply could be even higher.

The value of these combined holdings is already monumental. The report highlighted that at the end of Q2, the two groups collectively held Bitcoin worth approximately $628 billion, calculated at an average price of $107,700—a value that has doubled since the previous year. This immense concentration of wealth naturally raises a critical question for the market’s stability: what would happen to Bitcoin's price if these whales initiated a large-scale sell-off? Recent activity suggests this is a valid concern, as whales have collectively sold BTC worth nearly $12.7 billion in the past 30 days, contributing to a price decrease and marking the most significant sell-off since mid-2022.

In conclusion, Fidelity’s analysis paints a picture of an asset undergoing a profound transformation. The accelerating trend of institutional adoption, coupled with the deeply entrenched conviction of long-term holders, is systematically reducing the liquid supply of Bitcoin at an accelerating rate. While short-term volatility driven by whale profit-taking is inevitable, this overarching trend of increasing scarcity presents a formidable long-term bullish case, potentially setting the stage for a new era of price discovery as available supply dwindles.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.