FameEX Hot Topics | Analyst: Bitcoin’s Third Wave Targets $200K Amid Declining Sell-Side

Analysts are growing increasingly confident that Bitcoin is poised for its Elliott Wave III expansion, a phase renowned for delivering explosive price surges. Veteran market analyst Gert van Lagen cites the cryptocurrency's recent rebound from its 40-week simple moving average as compelling evidence that the corrective Wave II is approaching its end. If this classic pattern unfolds as expected, van Lagen forecasts Bitcoin could rocket into the $200,000–$240,000 zone within the next few months, signaling the onset of its next parabolic leg in a multi-year bull cycle.

Van Lagen's unique "step-like" Elliott Wave model illustrates Bitcoin's habitual behavior: it consolidates firmly above critical moving averages before erupting into steep rallies. This exact setup materialized in 2019 and 2023, both times preceding massive multi-fold gains, which bolsters the view that today's compressed trading range is nothing more than a coiled spring ready to unleash upward momentum. Echoing this optimism, crypto trader Jelle notes that Bitcoin is still trapped below the midpoint of its long-term ascending channel. A convincing breakout above this barrier could catapult the price toward the channel's upper edge around $350,000, highlighting the enormous upside potential embedded in the chart.

Shifting to fundamentals, macroeconomic expert Sminston With contends that wider economic cycles are tilting decisively in Bitcoin's favor. The U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index has hovered below the 50-level contraction mark for almost three years—the most extended slump since 1948. Historical precedents reveal that such drawn-out weaknesses invariably give way to powerful mean-reversion upswings, channeling fresh capital into risk-on assets. As sentiment rebounds, Bitcoin's role as a high-beta speculative play positions it to reap outsized rewards in the emerging bullish environment.

Yet, despite the favorable long-term technical and macro landscape, short-term dynamics show caution. On Tuesday, Bitcoin closed the weekend CME futures gap and is now testing for sustained acceptance above $105,000. Glassnode metrics indicate a significant drop in futures open interest following the October 10 liquidation event, with shrinking average order sizes reflecting reduced whale activity and a shift toward retail dominance. This deleveraging has dampened volatility for now but has also purged overhanging leverage that once stifled rallies.

Hyblock Capital's on-chain insights provide encouragement: clusters of long liquidations around $100,000 on November 4 and last Friday triggered swift, modest rebounds, demonstrating resilient local mean reversion. If the fresh CME gap liquidation area ignites a comparable reflexive bounce, Bitcoin might establish a firm higher low above $105,000. This would confirm near-term bullish reversal signals while aligning seamlessly with the overarching Wave III thesis, paving the way for a sustained multi-month climb toward $200,000 and potentially far beyond.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.