FameEX Hot Topics | Analysts：Bitcoin data proves $80K was the low, bulls are back

Bitcoin analysts are declaring $80,000 as the definitive cycle bottom, with one prominent researcher assigning a striking 91% probability that BTC will rally to $118,000 in the coming months. The conviction stems from a rare capitulation-volume pattern that has materialized just 11 times in Bitcoin’s history. This “rule-of-three” model on weekly charts identifies three consecutive high-volume red candles as a reliable precursor to major reversals. In eight of the eleven prior occurrences, the pattern ignited powerful new bullish legs that carried Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs. Only one instance led to prolonged downside, marking it as a clear statistical outlier. The same framework now projects a 99% chance of reaching at least $112,000 and a 75% likelihood that the overarching bull market remains alive and well.

Analyst Astronomer warns that the current wave of extreme bearish sentiment is the classic trap that appears at market bottoms. Phrases like “wait for confirmation” or “the bull cycle is over” are echoing loudly just as history suggests they should be ignored. Selling or staying sidelined risks watching the next explosive leg higher from the sidelines, only to chase at unfavorable prices. Reinforcing the bullish signals, Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) golden cross has dropped to -1.6—a level that has consistently flagged undervaluation and preceded sharp mean-reversion rallies. Still, veteran traders like Darkfost remind the community that leverage remains treacherous amid the ongoing volatility.

Arthur Hayes adds weight to the $80,000–$85,000 floor by shifting focus to macro liquidity conditions. He believes the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening regime is approaching its conclusion while U.S. bank lending is already picking up speed. This impending liquidity surge should lift all risk assets, including crypto, in a classic “rising tide” scenario. “We’ll chop below $90K and maybe test the low $80Ks again, but $80K holds,” Hayes asserted, insisting that liquidity—not fleeting sentiment—will power the next sustained advance.

On-chain data tells the same story of exhaustion and absorption. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin just posted its largest single-day realized loss since the 2022 FTX implosion, yet the market digested the panic selling almost immediately and turned positive within hours. This swift recovery after intense forced liquidation indicates that weak hands have been largely flushed out. With floating supply now reduced and traditional markets stable, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to defend the $80,000–$85,000 zone and launch the next major upside leg.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice or the official views of FameEX.